After his lightning assault on Kyiv failed last year, Vladimir Putin switched strategies. Unable to impose his will on the battlefield, he pivoted by necessity to a drawn-out campaign of attrition, confident that Russian support for the war would wear down the will of Ukraine’s Western backers. The open democratic systems of the West, easily manipulated and highly sensitive to public opinion, would inevitably lose interest in Ukraine. Resistance, Putin claimed, was futile: if the Russian wolf could not capture its prey immediately, it would pursue it until it collapsed of exhaustion.
In the past day, it is clear that it is the wolf himself who is tiring. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of a mercenary outfit turned military force, launched an open rebellion against Putin that has shattered the Kremlin strongman’s veneer of invincibility. Sixteen months after confidently announcing the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin was forced to plead with his countrymen to oppose an ongoing coup at home. Prigozhin’s men progressed quickly. They occupied Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, and moved north toward the Russian capital. Putin reportedly cut a deal before they reached Moscow.
This is a moment for reflection for the West. That Putin would want to sell them an image of his inevitability is understandable; that so many in the West would buy it unquestioningly is incomprehensible. For over a year, the Biden administration has accepted Putin’s paradigm that Russia cannot be defeated in Ukraine.
Prigozhin’s rebellion demonstrates the folly of that thinking. But the turmoil in Russia also presents an opportunity. It is time for the US to break free of Putin’s spell and go on offense.
Events now favor action. The chaotic scenes emanating from Russia will galvanize Ukraine’s military and poison Russian morale. Russia will be seized by internal recriminations for the foreseeable future, with bloodletting sure to follow sooner or later. If properly supported, Ukraine can achieve real battlefield breakthroughs.
For over a year, the Biden team has sought to manage the conflict toward a military stalemate that could produce a negotiated settlement. After fearing Russian strength, it must not now succumb to fears of Russian disorder. The Biden team may be as paralyzed by Russian weakness as it has been by Putin’s saber rattling.
Instead of attempting to stage-manage an outcome, the US should pocket what it can now. It should see the present moment of uncertainty in Russia as an opportunity for Ukraine. The Biden team should follow last week’s international donor conference in London by announcing a strong commitment to Ukraine’s future membership in NATO, complete with a multi-year military assistance package that includes the immediate provision of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions (DPICM), MQ-1C Gray Eagles, and MQ-9 Reapers.
Prigozhin’s challenge of Putin is far from over. No matter its outcome, the likelihood of rapprochement between the US and Russia is low. Instead of waiting for the second coming of Gorbachev to seize power in the Kremlin, the US should focus on what it can achieve: a victorious Ukraine, anchored in the West, and rooted in a broad zone of peace and prosperity along the eastern flank of Europe.
Leave Russia to the wolves.