Even before Russia intervened in Ukraine, European arms control was in trouble. Russia and the West were accusing one another of violating the letter and the spirit of existing agreements. Moscow complained about NATO’s ballistic missile defenses (BMD), conventional military deployments in former Soviet bloc states, and other measures Russians described as threatening. NATO governments hoped for, though probably never expected, Moscow’s cooperation in building joint missile defenses and reducing Russia’s large inventory of tactical nuclear weapons, and thought, too optimistically, that they could assuage Moscow’s irritation at having lost its superpower status.
Now, these illusions have succumbed to the harsh reality of war in Ukraine. NATO leaders worry that Moscow is seeking to subvert neighboring countries and is violating arms control agreements to weaken the Atlantic Alliance’s cohesion. At present, NATO and Russia have suspended their main direct arms control talks and are undertaking major military buildups directed at each other. There are no prospects of new European arms control agreements anytime soon. If anything, the coming years could see the failure of existing treaties without their renewal or replacement.