Most speculation about artificial intelligence has focused on its potential to kill jobs and on the policies that government might implement to control AI and cushion workers against temporary or permanent unemployment. Amid all the pessimism and calls for government protection, it’s important to remember that our only window into the future is the past. From the colossal changes wrought by the Industrial Revolution to the Digital Revolution of the last quarter-century, improvements in technology have created an array of jobs that far exceeded—in quantity and quality—the ones eliminated, elevating standards of living. History offers cautionary tales of how special interests and public fear can spawn government policies that delay progress and raise the cost of the transition.
For a medieval economy that had scarcely grown in 1,500 years, the Industrial Revolution in the U.K. unleashed a greater concentration of material blessings than ordinary people had ever experienced. From 1840 to 1900 real wages doubled, and the average lifespan increased by 22%, from roughly 41 years to 50. The population doubled, and employment rose by 80%.