Russian President Vladimir Putin is starting 2025 with a bang. In a nod to U.S. President Donald Trump’s desire for a settlement in Ukraine, the Kremlin has announced its readiness for negotiations “without preconditions.”
However, the devil is in the details. For Russia, “without preconditions” translates to cutting off Ukraine from any meaningful security guarantees and downgrading NATO’s ability to deter and defend member states in Eastern Europe. This outcome, if realized, would be disastrous for U.S. interests and would set the stage for renewed and more widespread warfare in the not-too-distant future.
It doesn’t have to be this way. While 2025 will undoubtedly pose serious challenges for Ukrainian forces, the next 12 months will be no cakewalk for Moscow either.
Russia’s wartime economy is under severe strain: inflation, crippling labor shortages, and a wave of newly announced sanctions targeting its oil exports spell significant trouble in the year ahead. In his annual staged “Direct Line” call-in show last month, Putin admitted, “Of course, inflation is such an alarming signal.” No doubt the czar is alarmed — he knows rampant inflation played no small role in the demise of Nicholas II.
Signs of a fragile Russian economy are everywhere, and Russian elites are growing increasingly discontented. Take Russia’s civilian aviation sector, which has been hard hit by sanctions. An increasing number of Western aircraft have been grounded because Russia lacks the parts and expertise to maintain them. Or consider Russian gas giant Gazprom, which reported this month that it is weighing 40% cuts to its headquarters staff.
Putin is all in on the war against Ukraine. Having sacrificed a limited civilian economy to power a genocidal war, it is unclear whether Moscow could transition back from war production even if it wanted to. Furthermore, Russia cannot replace its battlefield equipment losses, even accounting for the use of dwindling Soviet-era stockpiles. This shortfall is especially acute for components such as artillery and tank barrels, which require advanced equipment Russia has limited access to.
Ukrainian long-range strikes are also taking a heavy toll on Russia’s manufacturing capacity. Last week, Ukraine, using a mix of drones and long-range missiles, launched its largest barrage yet against factories and bases inside Russia.
Replacing soldiers is another fraught proposition. While Ukraine’s manpower shortage is on the mind of the new administration, Russia faces manpower issues of its own. Recently, Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Russia has lost over 800,000 troops since the second invasion began. That staggering number would fill the Superdome — host to the upcoming Super Bowl — 10 times over.
To pay this butcher’s bill, the Kremlin has turned to North Korean troops and consistently ramped up sign-on bonuses and casualty payouts. Putin will do nearly anything to avoid a new round of mobilization, yet these tactics have only worsened Russia’s economic woes, accelerated demographic decline, and complicated relations with Beijing.
Making matters worse, Putin’s war of choice against Ukraine has crippled his ability and willingness to intervene in Syria to save former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. Finding his grip on power unraveling after nearly a decade of Russian support, Assad has been left stranded by Putin. Reports suggest Assad has been seeking permission to flee to the UAE rather than live out his days under Putin’s thumb in Russia.
The fall of Assad has challenged Russian credibility and undermined, at least temporarily, Russia’s ability to project power in the Middle East and Africa. Russia appears to have lost access to the crucial Tartus naval base.. contract for managing the port with Russian engineering construction company Stroytransgaz has been canceled, and a broader withdrawal of Russian vehicles and cargo has this week been underway Russia will resettle some of the Syrian based assets in Libya, but will be unable to fully cover the strategic loss.
Despite these setbacks, Putin is preparing to enter peace talks with the new administration with maximalist goals. By supporting Ukraine, the Trump team can make Putin’s increasingly difficult choices even more painful. When all is said and done, Russia in 2025 may be exposed as a Potemkin village. With sustained U.S. and Western support, Ukraine can outlast Russia and secure a better outcome after years of combat.