With Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Georgia and Ukraine and his threats against the Baltic states, he has established that the Russian Republic believes it can reclaim any territories of the former Soviet Union. This doctrine is on a collision course with Xi Jinping’s “China dream,” which aspires to undo the “Century of Humiliation” in the 1800s, when China had to cede vast territory and local sovereignty to both European and Russian imperialist regimes. Territorial disputes between the two autocratic powers are likely to become one of the biggest threats to global stability as Mr. Xi in effect adopts the Putin doctrine.
The looming problem for Mr. Putin is the irredentist Chinese claims stemming most prominently from the Russian acquisition of eastern Manchuria and the Port of Vladivostok through the 1858 Treaty of Aigun and the 1860 Convention of Peking. Siberia and Central Asia are as central as Hong Kong and Taiwan to Mr. Xi’s vision. China now encroaches on Russian interests in Central Asia and Mongolia through its Belt and Road Initiative, its development of mining and energy interests, and its railroad connection across the old Silk Road from eastern China to the heart of Europe.