On NatSec Matters, Michael Doran discusses the outlook for United States–Israeli attacks on Iran, explaining how internal power dynamics within the Iranian regime shape prospects for negotiations to de-escalate or end the conflict. He also examines the diverging interests of Israeli and American leaders, the influence of Iran’s ethnic groups on potential outcomes, and why he believes a citizen-led uprising to topple the government is unlikely.
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Cover: Edited version of US Air Force, US Navy, and US Marine Corps aircraft along with US Army Patriot missile batteries line up on the runway for an elephant walk during a routine operational readiness exercise at Kadena Air Base in Japan on May 6, 2025. (US Air Force)