For the first time ever, a Japanese destroyer sailed through the Taiwan Strait, and on the same day, Australian and New Zealand naval vessels sailed together through the disputed waterway, too. Miles Yu gives the background behind the strait’s importance for setting the tone with regard to international partnership against Chinese aggression. Second, in light of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s trip to the United States, we ask Miles about the Russia-Ukraine War’s current state, specifically through the lens of how China sees and fuels the conflict. Lastly, we profile the newly elected prime minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba.
China Insider is a weekly podcast project from Hudson Institute’s China Center, hosted by Miles Yu, who provides weekly news that mainstream American outlets often miss, as well as in-depth commentary and analysis on the China challenge and the free world’s future.
Event Transcript
This transcription is automatically generated and edited lightly for accuracy. Please excuse any errors.
Miles Yu:
Welcome to China Insider, a podcast from the Hudson Institute's China Center. I am Miles Yu, senior fellow and director of the China Center. Join me each week for our analysis of the major events concerning China, China threat, and their implications to the US and beyond.
Phil Hegseth:
It is Tuesday, October 1st and I'm Phil Hegseth alongside Hudson Institute expert Miles Yu. We start this week in the Taiwan Strait where for the first time ever, a Japanese destroyer sailed through the strait. On the same day, naval vessels from Australia and New Zealand also sailed together through the disputed waterway. Add in that in September, Germany sent its first ever ship through the strait as well. And you've got a new international pattern developing in a potential regional flashpoint Miles gives us the background behind the Taiwan Strait and its importance for setting the tone with regard to international partnership against Chinese aggression. Second, with President Zelensky meeting both vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump last week we asked Miles what the state of the Ukraine war is, but specifically through the lens of how China is seen and fueling the conflict and what the CCPs interests are when looking at any kind of resolution to the war.
Finally, Miles profiles the newly elected prime minister of Japan. Shegiru Ishiba where he lands on the US-China axis and whether we can expect the Japanese lurch towards international involvement and global leadership to continue. Alright, good to see you Miles. Good to see you Phil. Good morning. So we jump into the Taiwan Strait first this week. So last week it was very busy in the strait, and we actually saw for the first time a Japanese maritime self-Defense force destroyer transit, the Taiwanese Strait. That was last Wednesday. On the same day you also saw Australian and New Zealand ships transit, the straight together. That was a first for the Japanese. Also in September, a warship from Germany transited the strait for the first time. So lots of firsts. So Miles, we understand the significance of the strait, but let's dig into two things. One, the role that the naval patrols in particular play, and then second what the status quo is of the strait right now.
Miles Yu:
So let me just start with why naval presence in the Taiwan Strait by the allies is very important. First of all, this is the deterrence. You have to really have a show of force to be there. And this kind of a show of force started in June, 1950. The day after the Korean War broke out, President Truman ordered the Seventh Fleet, which was then stationed in Japan to enter the Taiwan Strait to prevent further escalation of warfare because mainland China, they want to invade Taiwan at the time.
That's why deterrence is very important, but also operationally it's very important to have a constant naval patrol in the Taiwan Strait. In the face of China's constant threat provides an invaluable early warning operation. Thirdly, to have a constant US and allies’ naval presence in the Taiwan Strait is in an operational necessity because this naval presence could connect Taiwan and Penghu Island with the Taiwan held offshore islands, which are very close to mainland coastline. The US defense pledge for Taiwan always consists of only Taiwan island itself and also the Pescadores also known as Penghu, but not the offshore islands close to China include Quemoy and Matsu. So therefore, if you have a warfare, China is going to take Quemoy and Matsu first and you have a naval presence over there and then you can really serve to much better to connect the Taiwan islands and Pescadores Islands. And with Quemoy and Matsu, that has always been an operational necessity. Now even though there's no treaty obligation or legal obligation for the US to defend the offshore islands, but the Congress specifically authorized the president to use operational discretion to use force to defend those offshore islands. So that's why operational is very important for us to have a constant naval presence. But most importantly really Taiwan Strait is international water. Everybody including United States, Japan, Canada, Singapore, all the navies have the right to pass through. So it's not China's territorial water. So that's why it's very important to uphold the international law.
Phil Hegseth:
Okay, humor me. So the Taiwan Strait is about 130 kilometers wide at its narrowest. And how far out into international waters do the territorial claims of China and Taiwan respectively reach
Miles Yu:
130 kilometers? Phil, I didn't know you have gone into continental we use miles. We use imperial system.
Phil Hegseth:
I'm reading all these intercontinental news sources, so that's what I'm running off of.
Miles Yu:
Yeah, it's somewhere around 19 to 110 miles apart.
Phil Hegseth:
I appreciate that.
Miles Yu:
It depends on which points of contact you're talking about. So, it is not really wide strait, but it is significant. So this is a natural barrier for Taiwan's defense.
Ever since the US seventh fleet had patrol the Taiwan Street with a regular frequency and with capital ships. So that did not change until September, 1969. The newly elected president, Richard Nixon, advised by his national security advisor, Henry Kissinger, decided they want to make China happier. So they order the suspension of the regular patrol with the capital ships by the seventh fleet. Instead, they changed it to patrol on intermittent basis with smaller ships. Since we of course exploited the Nixon Kissinger weaknesses, masqueraded as a detente and outright made the Taiwan Strait a taboo region for decades for the US Navy to pass through. The situation did not really begin to change until the last years of the Obama administration when China began very aggressive, particularly in the Taiwan Strait. And they claim that Taiwan Strait is their territory that is just really alarming to everybody.
Phil Hegseth:
Are they claiming that their territory or waters actually extend further than they do now? Do they claim the entire strait?
Miles Yu:
They use the continental shelf argument to say this is actually Chinese water.
So that's why it is a very dangerous if you allow China to claim the entire strait as theirs. And also China has a strong sense of ownership of Taiwan Strait. Nobody else could be there except its ours. So this is basically a flagrant violation of international law because that is by all definition and global conventions is international water. So, America began to sort of speed up is a patrol known as the freedom of navigation operation, FONOP. FONOP, of course, Obama military started very slowly and spiked dramatically during the Trump administration in the last 10 years. Also, there are close to 90 passages by the US Navy warships, mostly destroyers. However, more than two thirds of them took place in the Trump administration. And then when Biden team came in and they slowed down a little bit, not by much in 2021 for example, there were only about the 11 FONOPs passing through the Taiwan Strait. That rate remains until today. So roughly about once a month because of the United States constant naval passages in the Taiwan Strait, we completely defy China's so-called red line on not passing through Taiwan Strait with the US warships. And we effectively internationalize that straight. And this has provided the best defense for Taiwan.
Phil Hegseth:
Well, and now it's being internationalized in another way. We've had a longstanding presence there. But the story last week was that the Australians, New Zealand and the Japanese all passed through. So what is that shift that's happening?
Miles Yu:
Well, it is important obviously because it indicated that this conflict, this epic conflict is no longer, it has never been between United States and China. It is indeed China versus the rest of the world. So that's why it's very important to have friends and allies to follow our footsteps and do the same because it is to uphold the international law. Now you mentioned about Japan and Australia, obviously that is very important for them to do so. But far more importantly is the participation of German warships.
Not only that we've had follow Americans leadership, the warships from France, Canada, Netherlands. What this means is we're talking about NATO countries. The NATO Secretary General Jens Stolenberg has been advocating for NATO countries, naval presence industry and the foreign policy czar of the European Union. Mr. Baral also wrote an article in France urging EU country to constantly send naval ships possibly through the Taiwan Strait. So the Taiwan issue has been shown to the world what truly it is. It is not original issue, it is a global issue. Everybody should be research about this just like the issue of North Korea, the issue of Ukraine. It's not just a regional issue.
Phil Hegseth:
Well, and we're seeing that on this show and also with last week's activities. Yeah, go ahead.
Miles Yu:
I might also want to add that this is not just about China's only problem in the region. China's problem with a lot of countries, particularly in the South China Sea that has about five or six countries angered by the Chinese claim. What's really interesting here is for the first time ever, the navies of United States, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Philippines are holding joint exercises in the South China Sea. And that is happening as we speak. So this is actually a very important significant development as well.
Phil Hegseth:
Okay, and moving on to our second topic also, last week, President Trump met with President Zelensky of Ukraine in what was an interesting meeting. It was covered domestically, obviously everywhere. Trump was a little bit critical of Zelensky calling him the world's best salesman. I don't think that's new for him, but Miles, let's talk a little bit about where the American appetite for the war in Ukraine is, and then we'll get into how this all plays into China as well.
Miles Yu:
Americans obviously are hoping to have Ukraine win over Russia's aggression, and so there's no question about that. However, you mentioned about the spat between President Trump and President Zelensky. That was real too. It's really a reflection of Americans growing hesitancy in providing billions and billions of dollars to Ukraine at this particular juncture. What really triggered the spat between Trump and Zelensky was Ukrainians eagerness to jump into the American election at this time because President Zelensky unwisely sent his ambassador to show up at one of the Kamala Harris’ rallies in Pennsylvania, which is a crucial state, and President Trump was not really happy about that. He evoked not to meet with Zelensky when he came to DC but there are a lot of issues here as to why there was a growing doubt about this war. President Trump never is someone who means his word. He just say he listen, the war has to stop. They stop on what condition. So that's basically the issue. So I think there are several issues here, which is related to China as well. First of all, I think the larger issue really is the war has been going on for three years. Yes, Russia did not win as quickly as it planned. So this is basically also a miscalculation on Russia's side. On the other hand, the strategic stalemate in Ukraine also cause a lot of damages and lives to both sides.
What really is unclear right now is the end game. What is the victory going to be like for Ukraine? What is the Russian defeat going to be like in this conflict? So, no political leader either Russia, Ukraine or United States or even you, has provided a convincingly clear picture as to what the end game should be like. So that's why I think there is a lot of confusion. So secondly, I think there is also, yes, there are some here victories back and forth, back forth, but the really best example description I think about where Ukraine is basically it's a stalemate. So, the lack of a decisive victory for Ukraine is the pattern.
Americans want to see where we're supporting could have the potential to even win the war, the conflict. So, I think the Ukrainians should really have a decisive victory to convince Americans that Ukrainians could win. The American War for Independence in the late 18th century, we had a lot of sympathizers, particularly the French and Spanish, but they were not sure whether George, Washington's ragtag army could beat the most powerful military force in the world, which is Great Britain until October 1777 when George Washington beat the British in Saratoga, New York. That decisive battle, that decisive victory convinced the French and Spanish to jump on board officially declare alliance with the United States. So that's why we need something like Saratoga.
And also, I think Americans are not very happy with the lack of sufficient support for Ukraine by the EU countries. I know there's some myth and misunderstanding about this, but overall at least that is the impression a lot of Americans are getting. I think the biggest thing for Zelensky ambiguous dalliance is that his dalliance with China is an illusion, he's still hoping that China could play somewhat kind of a positive role in settlement of this war, or even worse in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. That's why even though China has openly sided with Russia on the war and provided Russia with lethal weapons and technologies to kill the Ukrainians, Zelensky has not come out openly condemning China. So, he said a few words here and there, critical of China, but he still is very ambiguous about his dalliance with China. Of course, it also related to United States lack of teeth in punishing China for its egregious action of assisting Russia in the war in Ukraine. So China is a real villain of the war, and Zelensky is not very clear on that. Therefore, in the minds of many Americans, the war in Ukraine is becoming China's proxy war in a global fight with the United States.
But there's no question about the fact that Americans want Russia defeated in Ukraine. And there's also some kind of strategic calculation here too, because China wants to prolong the war in Ukraine so that it could become a strategic distraction for America's focus because America's focus now is on China. So they want us to shift the back to focus on Europe, and that's why it is in the interest of United States to keep Russia defeated, to make Russia defeated in Ukraine, support Ukraine in the meantime, so that we could really go back to focus on China.
Phil Hegseth:
Well, that was going to be my question in hearing your summary there. I think it's interesting you call Ukraine a proxy war for China. To me that implies a heavy level of involvement and or at least a heavy level of interest in how it plays out, which makes sense since we've seen China doesn't skip out on opportunities. This is a big one to counter the global western order. So they certainly have an interest in the Ukraine conflict ending a certain way. We obviously want a clear Russian defeat as you've stated. So what's the Chinese hope in how this conflict plays out? What's their ideal end game here?
Miles Yu:
China was hoping that United States will be pinned down in areas far away from China. So China can carry out its own plan of aggression in Indo-Pacific and beyond. That's why I mentioned about the Ukrainian war has become China's proxy war. Not only that, China is actively supporting Iran, which is the master of all these difficulties in the Middle East. So, China has provided the Iranians signed a deal with Iranians several weeks after Biden became the president. That's worth $400 billion. China has influence Iran tremendously, and the Hamas China never come out to explain why there's a huge cache of Chinese made weapons in the tunnels and the fortresses of Hamas in Gaza. And I don't know what kind of relationship with China has with Hezbollah, but I don't think China is going to be sort of stand idly by without providing those kind of lethal weapons or technical support for America's enemies. So not only that, China also is behind some other rogue nations in creating trouble. Obviously, Venezuela in Latin America, Venezuela wants to annex two thirds of its neighbor Guyana. That makes everybody nervous. That's why China wants to keep Americans focused on assets far away in all the other trouble spots. And China was promoting those troubles. So, this is China’s strategic game, and I think our job is to make sure that we'll not be distracted by that to make sure that the rest of the world is peaceful to focus on the aggression in the Indo-Pacific. And we have done tremendously in that during the Trump administration, in order to make the shift effective, the shift of American strategic focus away from Europe, the Middle East to Indo-Pacific, we convinced and cajole NATO allies to beef up their spending and capabilities building in Europe and also in the Middle East. We conducted a historic project, it's called the Abraham Accord, force Israel's friends to recognize Israel's right to exist and to sign deals.
So, it's not necessarily Kumbaya, but it's very close. That's the most historic, most significant development so that the United States will be able to get out of the mess in the Middle East and in Europe with focus on Indo-Pacific with China at the center.
Phil Hegseth:
So, to close the loop on this, and then I do want to get to our final topic, but if I'm putting the puzzle pieces together that you've laid out based on their interests, it essentially behooves the Chinese to assist in keeping Ukraine a quasi-stalemate to try and both shift American focus and drive up our financial cost of continuing the war. And then that also explains why when Zelensky looks to China for mediation or help with settlement, they're less than helpful because to end their, what you've called a proxy war is to allow the US focus and resources to return to them. Am I putting that together right? Based on what you've been saying?
Miles Yu:
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You're very close and I think China is cast in the United States as the ultimate villain for the war in Ukraine. It never condemned Russia's aggression. United States is the ultimate culprit for the war in Ukraine. So that's why China is selling its phony peace plan along with the countries like Brazil to broker a settlement in Ukraine, in Russia’s favor this Chinese plan. China-Brazilian plan has been rejected by Zelensky because obviously it is not in his country's interest. So, what really China is doing is to destroy America's leadership, global leadership to discredit America's leadership role in war and peace. So that's why China is playing the long game. And we've been hearing about this all along.
Phil Hegseth:
Yeah, the more and more you look at it and when you call it a proxy war, things like that, the more and more it feels like we've talked before and has been mentioned many times, including at the Hudson Institute of this feeling like a new Cold War. So, moving to our final topic, there is a new prime minister in Japan, Shigeru Ishiba. Miles with all of this pretext of our first two topics as the environment that this new prime minister is coming into, who is this guy? Where is he on the China US axis and what else do we need to know?
Miles Yu:
Well, many people are not very familiar with Mr. Ishiba and consider him a dark horse. He is a dark horse because a few people expected to win, but he did win decisively. Ishiba is a China hawk, even though his image 20 years ago was not, he was very conciliatory to China. But China has changed. So has Japan, the incumbent prime minister Fumio Kishida was considered soft on China as well in earlier in his life as a politician. But now he's probably most consequential Japanese prime minister in decades and he's now a China hawk. Not only that, he has make the plan completely shifted Japan's defense posturing. He project Japan as not just a leader of a security for the region, but also he sort of make Japan a global leader in security and peace. I think Ishiba will continue the legacy of prime ministers Abe and Ishida continue to build Japan's self-defense capability and continue to work very closely with the United States. But nowadays, to be a China hawk is the probably easiest thing in Japan because ofChina's aggression. And most importantly, Ishiba also is keen on improving Japan-Taiwan relations. He visited Taiwan more than 10 times last time, just little bit over a month ago in August.
As a matter of fact, it was in Taiwan when Mr. Ishiba announced his plan to compete for the prime minister position. With the United States he wants to be treated more equitably by the United States, but he's totally willing to even station troops in the US even he wants to some troops in the US for training and enhancement of interoperability between the two militaries. But Mr. Shiba is a perhaps best known for his advocate for Asian NATO. He want to have a NATO-like alliance in Asia. Japan will be a member of that. So, it is either expansion of NATO membership to include Asian countries like Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, or you create a NATO-like alliance in Asia, Japan and Australia, other like-minded countries will be in it.
Phil Hegseth:
Miles that sounds so familiar. I don't know where I've heard that before.
Miles Yu:
Well, you hear it from me many times. I've been saying this for years, so I think that's why I think he's right.
Phil Hegseth:
No, I love to see it.Does he have any other key stances that you want to highlight just in closing?
Miles Yu:
Well, he was not only, I had a very strong defense background. He was defense minister. I said he was also served in the economic sector. He was an agriculture minister at one point. So he understand domestic politics as well, domestic policies, Japanese economic issue. So I think this is a pretty well-rounded politician.
Phil Hegseth:
Well, he's coming into a very interesting environment. I think all of our topics blended together well today. And just paint a picture of how active the region and the world is and just how big of a role China is actively looking to play in it to counter the West. And so we'll be watching all of this. And thank you Miles for your insight.
Miles Yu:
Thank You very much and Phil, so glad to be with you. Alright, we'll see you next week.
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