From the perspective of the majority of Republican voters who don’t want Donald Trump to win the party's nomination, last night was a mixed bag. On the one hand, Trump won three out of four states, including by far the biggest one (Michigan), winning all three by double-digits or (in the case of Hawaii) very nearly so.
On the other hand, Trump seems to do quite well in states that are least like the nation's affluent, tributary-supported capital, and Mississippi has by far the lowest median income in the country. Fox News reported that, in Michigan, Ted Cruz spent only about $1,000 on ads, and Trump also benefited from Cruz's and John Kasich's splitting the vote there. (Together, they beat Trump by 13 points.) In Hawaii, fewer people voted than in any other state to date—fewer than would fit into a decent-sized basketball arena (13,377). And the biggest margin of victory of the night—17 points—was posted by Cruz, in Idaho, which was also the first non-Texas, non-Texas-bordering state in which Cruz (or anyone else) has beaten Trump in a primary (as opposed to a caucus).
For the night, Trump won 38 percent of the vote—very nearly the same as he won on "Super Saturday"—Cruz won 30 percent, Kasich 19 percent, and Rubio 9 percent. With three delegates still left to be allocated in Mississippi and another three in Hawaii, Trump won 71 delegates on the night (49 percent of those allocated), Cruz won 56 (39 percent), Kasich 17 (12 percent), and Rubio 0.
Twenty-three states are now in the books, and Trump has yet to win a majority in any one of them. But he is consistently winning pluralities. Here is the medal count (for wins and runner-up finishes) to date: Trump, 15 golds and 7 silvers; Cruz, 7 golds and 9 silvers; Rubio, 1 gold and 4 silvers; Kasich, 0 golds and 3 silvers.
All in all, Trump now has 458 delegates (44 percent of those allotted to date), Cruz 359 (35 percent), Rubio 151 (15 percent), and Kasich 54 (5 percent). Through 23 states, Trump has won 35 percent of the vote, Cruz 29 percent, Rubio 19 percent, and Kasich 9 percent.
If one were simply to give Trump the 99 Florida and 66 Ohio delegates set to be allocated next week, he would still have only 52 percent of the delegates allocated through (what would then be) 25 states. To win a majority of the delegates before the convention in that scenario, he would still have to win 48 percent of the delegates the rest of the way, in what would then surely be a two-man race between himself and Cruz.
In other words, wins in Florida and Ohio can't make Trump anything close to a sure thing. They can only set up a battle between the two men who have collectively dominated the race so far.