Nobody dominated the final pre-Iowa Republican debate, but it was a spirited affair that will likely affect the outcome of the caucuses. The questions from Fox News were a bit all over the place and sometimes seemed to be asked more from the perspective of the Obama White House than from that of the GOP base. (Islamophobia is apparently more of a concern than a nuclear Iran; and Obamacare, Main Street economic growth, and the national debt apparently don't merit much attention.)
Still, it was a pretty good debate, and here's how the various participants (in ascending order of their Iowa poll numbers) seemed to fare:
John Kasich: He was somewhat less grating than in prior debates and probably helped himself a bit in New Hampshire.
Chris Christie: He doesn't convey much of a sense of what he'd do in 2017 and is falling into the governors' trap of acting like simply being a governor means he deserves a promotion to president. If he wants to have a real impact on the race, he'll have to give voters a clearer sense that he has some other reason for running than a desire to beat Hillary Clinton in debates and be rewarded with a chance to live in the White House. Still, Christie is never a bland presence, and he certainly had his moments last night. It wasn't a bad debate for him; it just wasn't great.
Jeb Bush: This was by far his best debate. He looked better, sounded better, and came off much more like a confident statesman than he ever has with Donald Trump on the stage. His performance should give his camp a much-needed jolt of confidence.
Rand Paul: He was typical Rand Paul.
Ben Carson: He had his moments, as usual, and always seems like a good and decent man. But he now seems more like an afterthought candidate who will maintain a core group of supporters but has little chance of expanding his support much beyond that. Then again, there have already been plenty of surprises in this race, so who knows?
Marco Rubio: He had a lot of good moments and a lot of stage time, but the debate was far too focused on his Achilles' heel for it to have been a particularly good night for him. Rand Paul introduced the subject of immigration and Rubio's central role in the Gang of Eight, then Rubio made a tactical error by needlessly prolonging an immigration exchange with Jeb Bush, and then he had yet another exchange on the subject with Ted Cruz. None of these worked to Rubio's advantage. He might have gained a bit of ground in Iowa—partly because of playing the religion card, mostly because of Trump's absence and Rubio's generally strong presence, which included a nice line about how Hillary Clinton's first act in office might be to pardon herself. But Bush's improved performance and the immigration exchanges might combine to make things a bit harder for Rubio in New Hampshire and South Carolina than they otherwise would have been.
Ted Cruz: He was a bit prickly at the start (and then had his attempt at a joke interrupted in an inopportune way by the crowd and Chris Wallace) but gave a series of very strong answers as the debate progressed, had a good closing, and had a good night. He gave compelling answers on ethanol, why he's not a favorite of Washington politicians, and—especially—immigration. As the polling leader among those who weren't AWOL, he was under fire—both from the other candidates and the moderators—more than anyone else on the stage, but that cut both ways: He was front and center, he got a lot of speaking time, and the debate both began and ended with him. Iowa voters may have preferred him to Trump in the role of the central candidate on the stage—we'll know soon enough.
Trump: He hurt himself—it was almost as if he wasn't there.