City states have largely disappeared from world politics. Over the centuries, technological and economic advances made great powers rich and strong enough to impose their will far away from their home territories, so there are few places left in the world valuable enough for a free city to thrive and not succumb to foreign domination. Today’s few independent cities generally owe their success to an imperial patron’s protection, and Singapore is no exception. It exists largely because of the British empire, and now is a barometer for American power in Southeast Asia.
Singapore’s modern history began when Stamford Raffles established a trading post there in 1819. The island sits along the major seaborne route between India and East Asia, so it grew as the British empire expanded eastward from India. There were about 1,000 people on the island when Raffles set up shop and nearly 1.8 million when Singapore became independent from Britain in 1963. London’s main interest in Singapore was strategic: Admiral John Fisher wrote in 1904, "Five keys lock up the world!" Singapore was one of them.
Although Americans have had some notable disputes with the British, they share with the mother country a unique outlook on global affairs. The United States is an open society where people can speak and conduct business freely, and for much of its history Britain has been the same. Both countries created an international order beneficial to their societies, and countries that mimic them join in the spoils. The American empire is much less exploitative than the British one, so America’s friends benefit more than Britain’s subjects did.
The shift from British to American global leadership made Singapore into an economic dynamo. In per capita terms, Singapore was about as poor in 1963 as neighboring Indonesia is now, but by converting itself into a hub in the American trading system, its GDP per person reached American levels. There’s a reason Crazy Rich Asians is set in 2018, not 1918.
There are two main threats to Singapore’s prosperity today. The first is America’s unwillingness to defend its own interests. For most of its history, the U.S. Navy tenaciously defended our trade and international shipping lanes. But since October 7, the Houthis have attacked American naval vessels and neutral shipping with near impunity, most recently boarding and dynamiting a Greek oil tanker. China is also intensifying its pressure on the Philippines, a U.S. ally, most recently ramming a Philippine Coast Guard vessel in the South China Sea, another artery of global commerce.
The Biden administration has failed to deter these threats to the freedom of the seas. If this continues, Singapore and other U.S. partners who depend on trade will suffer tremendously, as will Americans. The American economy benefits directly from international trade, and if Xi Jinping thinks he can push the United States around, he could attack Taiwan. Bloomberg estimates that in the first year of such a war, Southeast Asia’s economy could shrink by 20 percent, and America’s by 6.7—much worse than the COVID recession.
The other threat comes from the global trading system’s unraveling. Xi’s "dual circulation" strategy aims to cut off strategically important sectors of China’s economy from international markets, and thus immunize China from American sanctions and economic pressure. The West is also trying to protect itself from China’s attempts to undercut its manufacturers and thus deindustrialize it. The United States and the European Union have imposed punitive tariffs on China’s subsidized electric car exports, and even Canada recently joined them.
This puts Singapore and much of Southeast Asia in a bind. China is Singapore’s largest trading partner, followed by neighboring Malaysia, the United States, and European Union. The United States is by far the largest source of foreign investment too. As the Chinese and Western economies pull apart, Southeast Asia risks being torn apart.
Singapore has thrived as American power has increased, and its continued success serves U.S. interests. The city hopes to keep American security and economic ties while also benefiting from trade with China, and it is not eager to hop off its seat on the fence. This can be frustrating, but the wealthier and stronger the rest of Asia becomes, the harder it will be for China to dominate its neighborhood, let alone the world. A billion more crazy rich Asians, please.
Read in The Washington Free Beacon.
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