Military experts agree: The U.S. is losing the race to protect its satellites from attack. The Pentagon's top weapons purchaser, Frank Kendall, even concluded in an interview in March that of all the military technology areas where the U.S. is threatened by Russia and especially China, "the space domain" is possibly the worst.
China, for example, has worked steadily for the past decade on new anti-satellite weapons ranging from ground-launched missiles to destroy orbiters, to ground-based lasers, electronic jammers, and cyberattacks. So worrying about the threat China poses to U.S. space assets, isn't surprising. What may be surprising is that Japan offers some intriguing solutions to Washington's most pressing problems in space.
Over the past decade, Japan has been quietly building a space program geared specifically for military surveillance, and they plan to launch in 2019 a "space force" to defend the country's assets in space. They even call space "the fourth battlefield," and are thinking about space as the next frontier in potential future wars.
The high ground
And no wonder. Japan is surrounded by three nations with nuclear ballistic missiles -- China, North Korea, and Russia -- two of which are hostile, the third potentially so. Getting warning of an attack in a matter of minutes is vital to national survival. Since 2008, Japan has been committed to building an effective network of space assets to detect and deter any attack from above, as well to keep track of China's increasingly aggressive moves in the South China Sea. That network includes three innovations the U.S. might learn from.
The first is that Japan has grouped all its military and civilian space activities under the strategic guidance of a cabinet-level Office of National Space Policy, including research and development, for both military and civilian satellite technology -- with a growing bias toward the former. This doesn't preclude private-sector commercial development of space, far from it. But it does ensure that it is coordinated with the nation's national security priorities, including the kinds of launch vehicles and types of satellites sent into orbit.
The second is that Japan is integrating its surveillance systems -- for air defense, missile defense, and radar and space sensors to keep track of what's happening in space -- into a single force capable of protecting against threats through the entire vertical dimension of aerospace --something the U.S. still divides among its separate service branches and independent agencies like its Missile Defense Agency.
The third is that Japanese space technology has trended away from large, multitasking satellites to smaller, more agile systems that are harder for an enemy to find and destroy -- exactly the change needed to augment America's space security. Japan's Smart Sat program, for example, works to develop small satellites that can be launched not only to repair and maintain other satellites but for anti-satellite operations against a foe.
Follow my lead
As people learn more about the Japanese revolution in space, it is beginning to draw attention from other countries worried about China.
One is India, which actually has more assets in space than Japan, and other potential enemies to deal with besides China. The Indian military would like to find ways to integrate ground- and space-observation sensors into a single system for intelligence gathering and defense, and are looking to Japan for ways to do it.
Another country is, and should be, the U.S. Despite being top-heavy with space satellites for both military and civilian use -- the U.S. owns 43% of all orbiting satellites -- and despite having more advanced launch-system and satellite technology than Japan, Washington and the Pentagon have only just begun thinking in the way Japan has about the vulnerabilities of those assets to attack by China in the event of a conflict. After all, even a medium-size attack on GPS satellites would effectively cripple the U.S. Navy's ability to detect moves by the People's Liberation Army Navy, and to coordinate a response.
This year both countries committed to increasing their cooperation in space, as part of the latest revision to the U.S.-Japan Security Guidelines. In response, U.S. companies need to work with their Japanese space industry counterparts like NEC, Toshiba, and Mitsubishi Electric on ways to shore up our vulnerable space assets, including those the U.S. military relies on for everything from communications and intelligence to precision strikes.
The only war between the U.S. and Japan started more than 70 years ago with an attack from the sky, at Pearl Harbor. It would be ironic if now Japan helps the U.S. defend itself from the next attack from the sky, namely in space.