Below Hudson Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
The Russian military has stepped up offensive actions as frozen ground enables cross-country movement.
Ukraine’s FrankenSAM system has debuted in combat with a boost from its Western suppliers.
North Korean assistance has helped Russian combat formations maintain a high tempo in artillery salvos.
Ukraine’s indigenous defense technological and industrial base is seeking to match Iran’s new jet-powered Shahed attack drone variant, the Shahed-238.
Having witnessed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, concerned Baltic nations are beefing up their defenses as the Russian threat mounts.
1. Battlefield Update
The battlefield geometry of the war remained predictably static this week, though the tempo of fighting quickened. As of the time of writing, the Russian invasion campaign has made marginal advances along the Kupiansk–Svatove–Kreminna line, around Bakhmut and Marinka and near Avdiivka.
Russian forces also renewed their assault on Bilohorivka; reports from the Ukrainian General Staff suggest that Russian attacks on the front line there have increased in intensity. Despite heavy losses of armor and personnel, Russian combat formations are taking advantage of frozen ground and harsh winter conditions to conduct cross-country operations on multiple fronts, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces are for the most part fighting to hold defensive positions.
Ukraine’s marines are holding their ground on the left bank of the Dnipro River. UK intelligence suggests, however, that they might be struggling with logistics and resupply issues as a Russian effort tries to dislodge the tactically critical bridgehead. The Russian military still suffers from a lack of coordination and insufficient training, despite having the numerical advantage in personnel.
Retaking and securing the left bank of the Dnipro remains an operational priority for the Kremlin, as it seeks to nip any potential Ukrainian offensive in the bud. In an attempt to break the stalemate in the area, Russian offensive efforts will most likely continue in the coming months. Moscow knows that the Ukrainian bridgehead is dangerously vulnerable to logistical difficulties, especially under harsh winter war conditions. Open-source intelligence suggests that Russia is currently utilizing first-person view (FPV) drones to systematically disrupt the small riverboats providing food and supplies to Ukraine’s combat formations in Krynky. As a result, Russian and Ukrainian FPV operators are dueling along the riverfront. Recently, Ukrainian robotic warfare units hunted down a Russian FPV operator with the call sign Moisey. Before being reportedly eliminated, Moisey had hit at least 30 Ukrainian logistics boats navigating the Dnipro.
Russia continues to pound Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and urban centers, including Kyiv, using the Iranian Shahed loitering munitions baseline in its assaults. In recent days Ukrainian military officials have warned of the rising threat posed by ballistic missiles that Russia has received from Pyongyang.
2. FrankenSAM Sees Its Combat Debut against Iranian Shahed Drones
A FrankenSAM air defense weapon, a US-produced military technology that combines Soviet-remnant systems with Western interceptors, reportedly hit a Shahed attack drone on January 16, marking the system’s first use in combat. As previous editions of this report have noted, the FrankenSAM project aims to equip Kyiv with hybrid air defenses by merging Ukraine’s Soviet-remnant launchers with legacy Western missiles, such as the RIM-7 Sea Sparrow and the AIM-9 Sidewinder. While the specific configuration of the FrankenSAM used this week has not been disclosed, the range of the strike suggests that a Buk/Sparrow combination or repurposed AIM-9M Sidewinder was likely deployed.
Augmenting Soviet-era systems with FrankenSAMs has bolstered Ukraine’s dwindling ammunition supplies. FrankenSAMs may also allow Ukraine to reposition their maneuver short-range air defense (M-SHORAD) systems, such as the Gepard and the Avenger, and move these assets from protecting population centers to the front lines.
Still, repurposed solutions can only provide a lower-altitude air defense option. More sophisticated Western air defense systems, like the Patriot family and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), remain high on Ukraine’s wish list as its leaders seek to confront pressing threats like ballistic missiles.
3. Ukraine Intensifies Drone Warfare to Counterbalance Russia and Iran
Last week, Ukraine’s new jet-engine kamikaze drone took to the skies. The project provides Ukraine with the capability to retaliate against Russia’s Iranian Shahed-238, a new, jet-powered addition to the Shahed baseline. Visuals suggest that the Ukrainian drone features a “duck” aerodynamic scheme with a front horizontal wing. The rear section features an unknown power unit with air intakes similar to a jet engine. The drone also likely possesses an adjustable engine thrust, although the details provided by the volunteer group developing it remain limited.
Taking its cues from Russia and Iran, Ukraine is increasingly including kamikaze drones in its strike packages. In a January 20 retaliatory strike following a Russian aerial assault on Kyiv, Ukraine’s attack drones reportedly struck a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing facility and a missile production plant, both high-value targets, inside Russia. On the same night, Ukraine reportedly struck another factory in Tula that produced weapons stations, Pantsir anti-aircraft systems, and turrets for armored vehicles.
One of the missile production plants that Ukrainian forces struck was located around 50 miles from St. Petersburg—and hundreds of miles away from Ukraine. This showcases Kyiv’s burgeoning deep strike capabilities and highlights how planners in Ukraine’s defense industry have been investing in the mass production of long-range kamikaze drones.
4. Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Fuels Defense Cooperation in the Baltic Region
Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and threatening rhetoric toward his neighbors have catalyzed increased military cooperation and new joint security initiatives among the Baltic nations. One significant example is the Baltic Defense Line project, which involves building anti-mobility defensive installations scattered along the 450-mile border between Russia and the Baltic states. The project is designed to detect and neutralize an aggressor at the first line of contact.
Graphics shared by the Estonian Ministry of Defense portray the project’s structure as a T-shaped entrenchment featuring a fortified bunker that can be camouflaged. Importantly, the project also involves establishing a resilient network of support points and supply lines, and the joint operation of strategic military systems such as HIMARS in peacetime and wartime. In addition, Estonia is taking significant steps to increase its domestic ammunition production capacity to bolster the region’s readiness to wage a high-tempo, artillery-driven war like the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.