Below, Hudson Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers an overview of the contemporary Middle Eastern strategic agenda.
Executive Summary
The Houthis pose an increasing threat to maritime security and trade.
China is stepping up its activity in the Gulf weapons market.
Iran is close to cutting a deal to purchase Russian Su-35 air-defense fighters.
Following a brief ceasefire, fighting in Gaza has intensified.
1. China Beefs Up Its Presence in the Gulf Weapons Market
This year’s Dubai Airshow, held between November 13 and November 17, featured significant showings from several important Chinese arms manufacturers, highlighting China’s growing presence in the Gulf weapons market.
Beijing made great efforts to display its air warfare systems at this year’s airshow. The state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) displayed many advanced solutions, such as the FC-31 stealth fighter, the Y-20 heavy-transport aircraft, the Z-20 tactical utility helicopter, and a variety of drones, including variants of the Wing Loong baseline and the AR-36 vertical-takeoff-and-landing unmanned aerial system. Notably, the Chinese AR-500W and AR-2000 drone helicopters made their overseas expo debuts during the airshow.
Of China’s many robotic warfare systems, the AR-2000 is of particular importance due to its potential technical capabilities in combat missions. Designed with folded rotor blades and a sensor suite consisting of a maritime search radar and an electro-optical pod under its nose, the platform is likely designed to be transported by ship. The rotary-wing asset also carries missiles, suggesting its potential for direct involvement in strike roles. Finally, the system displayed at the Dubai Airshow was reportedly equipped with a satellite communications (SATCOM) antenna in its nose and another SATCOM antenna on its tail boom.
The Dubai exhibition also played host to the consummation of a $440 million defense deal between the United Arab Emirates’ main procurement body, the Tawazun Council, and China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation (CATIC) for 12 platforms of the L-15 trainer / light-attack jet aircraft. Beijing also showed off an upgraded, active electronically scanned array (AESA)–radar equipped variant of the L-15 aircraft painted with the colors of the UAE flag, suggesting that China intends to be a major player in the Gulf nation’s weapons industry for some time to come.
2. The Houthis Pose a Growing Threat to Global Trade and Security
The Houthis’ attacks on commercial shipping vessels have reached a fever pitch, severely threatening maritime security and global trade. The Iran-backed group in Yemen has prioritized targeting ships with links to Israeli businesses, and has already caused several shipping companies to reroute their vessels away from Bab-al Mandab, a critical chokepoint connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden on which the Houthis have trained their fire. These vessels must now take longer routes at great expense, navigating around the Cape of Good Hope to destinations in Asia and Europe.
The alterations in shipping routes are also prolonging transit times, while the threat to maritime security is causing insurance rates to skyrocket. The unexpected hike in insurance prices of up to 250 percent has a particular effect on vessels with links to Israel. But the Houthis’ disruption of maritime trade has other global consequences, too.
In mid-December 2023, Maersk, the world’s largest shipping company, suspended its Red Sea operations due to the increasing volatility in the region. German-based shipping company Hapag-Lloyd also paused all container activity in the Red Sea after a Houthi strike on one of its vessels. Many other companies are following suit, marking a consequential trend for the entire world. Around 10 percent of global oil trade passes through the Bab al-Mandab, along with some $1 trillion in additional goods that transit the strait annually.
The Houthis’ combat operations are growing more dangerous, too. The militant group recently targeted the Liberian-flagged MV Palatium 3, a container vessel, with ballistic missiles, possibly marking the first time the group has used that weapons system to strike a surface platform. While open-source intelligence is limited as to the type of offensive asset used in the attack, the Houthis have long sought to acquire an anti-ship ballistic missile deterrent, dubbed Tankil. Tankil resembles the Iranian Raad-500, which according to Iranian sources possesses an operational range of at least 200 kilometers (124 miles). Even with half the range of the Raad-500, Tankil would prove destructive in a naval setting: anti-ship ballistic missiles possess flight and diving trajectories that make them powerful weapons, and they can reach high velocities when homing onto their targets from high angles.
Open-source defense intelligence has rendered the Houthis’ attacks quite predictable for some time. In November, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the chief of the organization, openly signaled the group’s menacing intentions in the Red Sea. Shortly thereafter, the militia used a helicopter to deliver gunmen aboard the Israel-based Galaxy Leader, seizing the vessel.
As the Houthis’ destructive efforts mount, North Atlantic Treaty Organization nations are joining defensive combat operations. The British Royal Navy Type 45 destroyer HMS Diamond recently used Sea Viper missiles to intercept a hostile unmanned aerial vehicle in the Red Sea, while the French Navy frigate Languedoc also destroyed a similar platform using Aster 15 missiles.
The scale of the Houthis’ threat demands an international coalition to protect maritime trade and security. Any effort to successfully neutralize the Houthis should begin with deterring their masters, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.
3. Iran Anticipates Procurement of Critical Russian Weapons
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s Tasnim News Agency claimed that Tehran is anticipating the delivery of Russian Sukhoi Su-35 supermaneuverable aircraft and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters. Earlier this year, Iran consummated a deal to receive the Yak-130 training jet / light-attack aircraft, a platform used in Russia’s fighter pilot generation programs for the Su-35.
Previous editions of this publication have meticulously assessed the threat posed by Iran’s acquisition of the Su-35. The aircraft’s design philosophy gives it a dangerous edge in aerial warfare, and lessons learned from the air war over Ukraine suggest that the aircraft can effectively fly combat air patrol missions. It also possesses an advanced weapons system configuration, sensors suit, and level of agility.
Iran’s ability to operate the aircraft from underground bases would make it even more formidable in defending Iranian airspace. At a time when Tehran is moving closer to introducing a military-grade nuclear edge in the Middle East, such a capability should raise alarms in the West.
4. Fighting in Gaza Intensifies
Since the end of the ceasefire in the first week of December, clashes between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have increased markedly. The IDF’s strategic push into eastern Gaza City has targeted Hamas’s robust defenses, initially positioned eastward but readjusted to the west following the ceasefire. This reorientation has significantly influenced Hamas’s booby-trapping tactics and has led to an increase in Israeli casualties, which have been inflicted primarily by explosive devices hidden in urban areas. There has also been a notable hike in Hamas fighters surrendering, indicating potential cracks in the group’s coherence and morale. Although, at the time of writing the trend cannot be characterized as a significant collapse, and a similar tendency has not arisen among the Saraya al-Quds of Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Nonetheless, according to Israeli officials, the IDF has apprehended over 500 Hamas members in the past two weeks.
Israeli casualties have risen sharply over the last few weeks too, with approximately 115 soldiers killed in combat operations inside Gaza. Israel’s casualty reports now include previously wounded or unaccounted-for personnel, and the IDF has also confirmed the deaths of several soldiers missing since October 7. The total Israeli death toll across all fronts since that date is approximately 1,130, encompassing civilians, military, police, firefighters, and medical personnel.
The situation in Khan Yunis mirrors eastern Gaza, with IDF strikes initially disorienting Hamas but subsequently prompting stronger resistance. One of the current strategies employed by Israeli forces involves the innovative use of seawater to flood Hamas tunnels, designed to force terrorists out of their foxholes. The effectiveness of this method is still under assessment.
On the Lebanon front, the rate of skirmishes between the IDF and Hezbollah continues to ebb and flow, with Hezbollah utilizing United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) bases for cover, complicating the IDF’s response options. Hezbollah has begun to attack targets deeper within Israel, now striking twice as deep as it did in the war’s opening weeks.