Hudson expert Miles Yu opens with his assessment of the BRICS summit held last week in Kazan, Russia, and whether it accomplished anything other than a moral victory for Vladimir Putin’s legitimatization campaign. Second, he analyzes the conveniently timed agreement between China and India over their longstanding border dispute in the Himalayas and argues that the solution is more a circumstantial strategy shift than a true settlement. Finally, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te visited the Island of Quemoy to commemorate the seventy-fifth anniversary of the Battle of Guningtou, which Miles likens to both the Battle of Saratoga and the Battle of Midway in terms of significance in shaping Taiwan’s history.
China Insider is a weekly podcast project from Hudson Institute’s China Center, hosted by Miles Yu, who provides weekly news that mainstream American outlets often miss, as well as in-depth commentary and analysis on the China challenge and the free world’s future.
Episode Transcript
This transcription is automatically generated and edited lightly for accuracy. Please excuse any errors.
Miles Yu:
Welcome to China Insider, a podcast from the Hudson Institute's China Center. I am Miles Yu, senior fellow and director of the China Center. Join me each week for our analysis of the major events concerning China, China threat and their implications to the US and beyond.
Phil Hegseth:
It is Tuesday, October 29th and I'm Phil Seth, alongside Hudson Institute's esteemed expert Miles Yu. We open today with the BRICS summit held last week in Kazan, Russia and whether it accomplished anything other than a moral victory for Vladimir Putin's international legitimization campaign. Second, we focus in on two founding members of BRICS, India and China, who signed a new agreement just days ahead of the summit, which saw Xi Jinping ceding previously disputed territory to India. Miles Explains why the agreement is circumstantial on the part of China and why only time will tell if the dispute is truly settled rather than paused. And lastly, we cover Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's visit to the island of Quemoy to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Guningtou, which Miles likens to the both the Battle of Saratoga and the Battle of Midway in terms of significance in shaping Taiwan's history and why the legacy of an island just six miles off the coast of mainland China is so important for understanding the future of Taiwan's struggle against the CCP. Good morning, Miles.
Miles Yu:
Good morning, Phil.
Phil Hegseth:
Good as always to see you. I'm excited about this week. I like these three topics that we got ahead, so we're going to jump in. The first is last week, the BRICS summit that was held in Russia. This was lauded as a diplomatic or at least symbolic victory for Putin and Russia and just their international recognition. But why don't you give us your general reaction to the success of BRICS leading up to this summit that took place last week?
Miles Yu：
Well, BRICS is a very odd phenomenon because it is a loosely organized international coalition or some sort. I mean, I say it's a coalition, it's a would be coalition even. In international grouping you must have common values. I don't see common values among the five countries, the core countries, Brazil, Russia, China, India, and South Africa. I mean of course now it's expanded its membership to include Iran and several other countries.
Phil Hegseth：
So Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, that's who was added this year.
Miles Yu:
So it's very hard to say what it is. I think the founding members, China and Russia in particular had in mind that this is going to be an "either or" international organization basically anti West, in this intention. But most of the countries in this BRICS group does not want to declare "either or" rather most of them are sitting on the fence.
So they want to benefit from both the Western alliance and also the BRICS alliance. That's why it's a loosely organized coalition without common values to defend. So it's very hard to say it's really a security alliance. It's far, far away from the likes of NATO. But you say, well now maybe it's a common interest? Not really. I mean what's the common interest? And from Russia and China's point of view, they want to upend the international order. But if the international order as it is over, would that really benefit countries like Brazil, India or even South Africa? So even China, I would say because China benefits tremendously from the existing international order. The only difference is that China wants to replace its own communist command economy as its own model of governance with the international order as it is. So I don't know whether China is going to succeed in that way or even benefit from that. So it's hard to say they have a common interest. Well, you'd say is it a trade bloc? Or it's based upon economic interest? It's hard to say because the preponderance of the power of market and technology is in the West. It's not within the BRICS.
So that's why it's not necessarily a trading bloc. And then maybe say, well maybe they want to create a common currency. Yes, China is trying to use the Yuan to replace the US dollar as the ultimate international settlement currency or reserve currency. The problem with that is that Yuan is not convertible because it's controlled by the Chinese Communist Party is not market floating. So what do you do with the money that can only be used in China? So nobody really wants it. I mean countries like Saudi Arabia, Brazil, they get the Chinese money. Do you know what they do? They go to Hong Kong exchange to US dollars immediately or buy gold from the Shanghai Gold Market.
So they all get rid of it as quickly as possible. Interesting thing is, Brazil has this very robust trade with China. China wants Brazil to use Yuan. Brazil said not really, let's just do the most primitive way of trading water. In other words, I buy your stuff, you buy my stuff. So what Brazil wants, well, to get a lot of Huawei stuff, the electronics infrastructure. So Huawei ends up having a lot of Brazilian beef. Huawei, the electronics giant in China is now the biggest Brazilian beef merchant in China because they have to sell this kind of stuff. So it's very weird, and BRICS is a mystery to a lot of people. I don't see any bright future in the near term.
Phil Hegseth:
It feels very symbolic at best. I do think one of the interesting photo ops was when you talk about replacement currency, they did roll out an example bank note, a BRICS bank note, which I did like the design of, but don't love the concept. But did anything actually come out of this meeting?
Miles Yu:
Very little. I mean it looks like a kumbaya. It looks like a big powwow of a new G seven or something. What do you call the grouping? Basically BRICS is designed as a counterweight against the G7. But it is not necessarily a big victory despite all the pageantry and pomposity in Kazan, Russia. On the other hand, what this big powwow in Russia really is a sign of a BRICS in crisis because Putin cannot go to a lot of countries because he's a wanted international war criminal. So that's why in the previous BRICS summit, Putin couldn't go to South Africa. Putin couldn't go to India for the BRICS summit and South Africa summit because Putin's absence, Xi Jin Ping was not very happy. So basically he stayed there halfway and then left and the next summit was somewhere hosted by India. I believe that it's not necessarily G20 (inaudible) think Xi refused to go because Putin couldn't go. So the reason why there's so much noise, so much joy in Kazan, Russia last week was because everyone is happy to go to Russia to avoid the embarrassment of their home country becoming a global pariah for hosting Putin without arresting him. On the other hand, it does sound like a victory for Putin, at least in terms of reputational gain, because it does serve to legitimize Putin. I mean, I think what's really, really most bizarre is not all the member countries' leaders went. It's the head of the UN secretary General Guterres who showed up for the hoopla that was basically, I think a disgrace. This is the international war criminal, the biggest destroyer of global peace, and the head of the UN showed up to congratulate to add his own prestige to this bizarre and absurd summit. The UN should be ashamed of itself.
Phil Hegseth：
Outside of Russia, who obviously has a vested interest in the success of this particular BRICS summit. What about countries like China, obviously who's the focus of the show, but India I think is an interesting member in BRICS. They've kind of got one toe over here in the West and they've got one toe in BRICS. So what are China and India looking to get out of a meeting like this and maybe BRICS in general?
Miles Yu：
Okay, there are two major issues at this summit that were discussed. Number one is the expansion of membership. Another one is war in Ukraine. So you cannot go to Russia while talking about war in Ukraine. So let's talk about the expanding membership. India is a very curious member in that grouping, because India has a lot of self-interest, its own very quirky perspective on global security. And one of the most earnest applicants for the new BRICS membership is Turkey.
And Turkey is very close to Pakistan. So India really hates the idea of Turkey becoming a member of the BRICS. So India basically blocked Turkey's application for joining the BRICS and this basically didn't go anywhere. Now on war in Ukraine, it's very, very interesting and also kind of fake because China, Brazil had some kind of proposal for peace in Ukraine. India also urged Vladmir Putin to consider peace, but then all this breaks countries, they have no backbone because they all say they want peace without condemning the aggression, without condemning the destroyer of peace that is Vladmir Putin. So this all looks very hypocritical to me. That's why the discussion of war in Ukraine, particularly urging and appealing for peace in Ukraine sounds very surreal. A little bit Kafkaesque.
Phil Hegseth:
I like how you're highlighting Turkey's membership there. I think there's a couple dichotomies there, not just their opposition to India, but also that they're a NATO member that would be joining BRICS. So there's a lot of crisscrossing ideas and values here that when you talk about finding a central value system to unite all of BRICS, it just gets more complicated the more they bring people in.
Miles Yu:
I think even Turkey joins the BRICS or any other international security alliances, even though BRICS is not one, but it has the potential to become one.
Phil Hegseth:
No.
Miles Yu：
And then if Turkey does that, they run the risk of Turkey being kicked out of NATO because you must have weapons integration, you must have critical infrastructure communication. Unity of defense infrastructure is a requirement for membership in NATO. And I think if Turkey joins the other security alliances with NATO as its primary enemy and that will basically make Turkey’s membership in great question.
Phil Hegseth：
Yeah. Alright, well shifting back to China and India last week, they settled on an agreement on their border dispute in the Himalayas. I'd like you to give us some more details on this. Miles, is this an agreement on the actual borders or is this an agreement on patrols around the border?
Miles Yu：
I think China wants to say this is basically a joint peaceful patrol of the border line. But in reality, China basically ceded the disputed territory to India. Something like two and a half times bigger than the size of Taiwan.
So China basically treated all the territorial disputes as a geopolitical bargaining game. It has nothing to do with China's vowed determination to uphold territorial integrity. If that's the case, they would basically not have those issues like this with such a cavalier attitude. I mean, today I'm your enemy, tomorrow I give you whatever you want. So that's basically it shows China's hypocritical nature of demanding annexation of Taiwan. China always says this has everything to do with upholding the motherland's territorial integrity. That's pure nonsense. Look at this. This is basically another thing. And India immediately declared the establishment of a new administrative infrastructure over that territory that China just seeded. So it's pretty much like that. Now, this is actually very interesting. This is not the first time China has done this. China has ceded its territories, that was supposed to be Chinese territory, to many countries that China considered as ideological allies to the former Soviet Union, to former communist in Mongolia, even to today's North Korea. They had the border agreement in 1962, which is still in effect. India and China did not have a border dispute of any kind for 10 years between 1949 and 1959, there are some called different understanding of the previous border agreement signed between British India and the Chinese government as well as the Tibetan government at the time. But nevertheless, it was not mounting to a crisis until 1959 with Dalai Lama went to India and the Indian government granted the Dalai Lama sanctuary.
That has been a problem. And also particularly since India clearly took the side with the Soviet Union in this very nasty international communist fight for global leadership between the Soviet Union and China in the late 1950s and early 1960s. So that's why China used this border issue as an excuse manufactured a created a problem and so went to war with India in 1962, which China crushed Indian defenders. But that sort of a memory has never faded in the minds of the India high command and also in general population. And then in recent years, India has a reason quite dramatically economically, technologically and militarily. So China view India as a destabilizing factor, a particular country's connection with the Tibetan. So China and India has gone pretty much like nuts over the border issue, and they're very tense, leading to the tragic incident in June, 2020 where Chinese border guards bludgeon to death something like 24 Indian soldiers. So that's why the two countries were in bad blood for a while and now Xi Jin Ping needed in India for the sake of the BRICS on West Alliance. And so that's why he basically conceded.
Phil Hegseth:
Was going to say that the timing is no coincidence here. The agreement was settled I think a day or two before this BRICS summit was held. So what ultimately led to, I think that kind of answers to why now, but there's a lot of history here. Why would Xi Jin Ping just cede that much territory?
Miles Yu:
Well, because India is a big country, as I said. India has a growing relationship with the west, particularly with the United States. So for purely geopolitical expediency, China needs India's good grace, because India is playing a very decisive role in many international arenas. The Chinese Communist Party is partly influenced by the communist ideology when it comes to the shape of a grand strategy, but also is influenced deeply by Chinese traditional historical, strategic wisdom that has come from the warring states age. I mean basically it is emphasized on opportunistic experience and deception. In this case, China and India may be on good terms right now, but China has never given up its own containment policy against India. That has been going on for decades. China remained the biggest backer of Pakistan government. Pakistan and India have never got along since 1948.
Phil Hegseth:
Right?
Miles Yu:
And China has robustly beefed up India's adversaries along its periphery. I mean Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, you name it. China has spent a lot of money in those countries basically to what China called containment against India. So I would not say this is as the ultimate [inaudible]. I think it is just it's […]
Phil Hegseth:
Opportunistic
Miles Yu:
[…] It's temporary. Any moment it's kind of a tense situation, too.
Phil Hegseth:
The shift focuses back and the borders get fluid again.
Miles Yu：
That's right.
Phil Hegseth：
Your argument is probably that this is not going to last or is going to last until it doesn't need to anymore.
Miles Yu：
Listen, this border issue between China and India has been going on since 1962. That's over 60 some years ago, and they have so many rounds of border negotiations to no avail. Every time there was a negotiation, China always tried to create some kind of tension. This is China's grand strategy, which is summed up by the former Chinese Communist Party Chief Jiang Ze Min (江泽民) Dui Kang Qiu He Zuo (对抗求合作） as to use confrontation to coerce cooperation. That's why China is such a destabilizing factor, not just around the India-China border in the whole global security environment. China's approach is always try to make trouble to become a big jerk as big as possible so that other people will be scared of it and to make some concession to it. This is basically Hitler logic.
Phil Hegseth:
Well, there's an agreement, but only history will tell if the border is actually settled. So that brings us to our final topic, and that is Taiwanese President Lai (赖) paying a visit to the island of Quemoy to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Guningtou could you just give us a brief history of the battle, why it's such a big deal, what it represents for the Taiwanese legacy now, and why it's such a big deal that President Lai (赖) went there and visited in this moment?
Miles Yu:
Well, the Battle of Guningtou, also known as the Battle of Quemoy, took place between October 25th and October 27th or 28th. It depends on how you counted that. So for a matter of several days, the battle was very intense. It was over the Chinese invasion of the little tiny island of Quemoy also known as Jin Men (金门) , which was several kilometers away from Chinese mainland coast. This took place in a backdrop of this massive retreat or defeat of the KMT, the Chinese nationalist government led by Chiang Kai-Shek (蔣介石), in the hands of Chinese People's Liberation Army. And that battle of Quemoy was an amphibious battle. There was the largest amphibious battle the People's Liberation Army has ever fought since then. But the battle was won by the KMT, by the defenders decisively. Three regiments, up to 10,000 Chinese troops were annihilated. And this was a brilliant battle and it was a very pivotal battle because it stopped the momentum of the Chinese communist military advance tour of Taiwan. So the existing-
Phil Hegseth:
Just quickly, you sent me a report by the Naval War College and I love how they put it. They said this was the battle that saved the Republic of China. It was Chiang- Kai Shek's Battle of Midway turning the tide of history.
Miles Yu:
That was so well phrased and I fully endorsed that because I wrote that article.
Phil Hegseth:
Of course you did.
Miles Yu:
Yeah, course you did. I'm surprised that you didn't see the author.
Phil Hegseth:
I didn't even see it. That's wonderful.
Miles Yu:
This is a literally short article I wrote for the US Naval War College Review a few years back. It's just a battle analysis of why the Chinese Communist Party lost this battle. It's pretty pivotal because this settled the current pattern of balance of power across the Taiwan Strait. It stopped the communist advance and it preserved the offshore islands of Quemoy and the Mazu （马祖岛）from being taken by the Chinese Communist. And then most importantly, it prevented the Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan.
Most importantly, as a matter of fact, if you look at the archive of evidence of the US military, it actually was the battle that convinced American joint chief of staff that the nationalist party actually could win a battle at such a crucial moment. It changed American militaries outlook and their assessment about capability of KMT, which is really important. If you want to be really little bit dramatic, you might say this is actually a battle of Saratoga for the Taiwanese. In October, 1777, George Washington's ragtag army defeated the British army, the strongest military force in the world in Saratoga, New York. That single battle convinced the French and the Spanish who hated the British to finally jump the ship and jump on the sign an official alliance with George Washington and the Continental Congress. So I mentioned about Midway turning point, but it's probably more appropriate to use this as the battle of the Saratoga that convinced America, Hey, listen, KMT, they actually could hold on.
And that has become a pivotal battle for the survival of Taiwan as we know it. And then of course it's called Republic China under the KMT leadership. And the most fascinating part of this, is that President William Lai, Lai Ching-te (赖清德) paid the visit to that island to specifically commemorate the 75th anniversary of the battle at Guningtou. This is so important politically for Taiwan because Lai Ching-te (赖清德) has come from exactly the opposite of the KMT. So he went there to pay tribute to the sacrifice of the KMT soldiers for the survival of Taiwan. He said, listen, even though politically we disagree on issue of unification, on issue of whether Taiwan is a part of China or Taiwan is Republic of China, but you have all come such a hard way and now you're the citizens of the Republic China, that is Taiwan. So he goes there, I think, as a gesture to unite the nation. And I think that really is the most important and I think he's done a wonderful job.
Phil Hegseth:
Well, and while he was there, he stated that no external force can change the future of Taiwan. Those are not small words and very symbolic for where he gave them, where he was commemorating them and what they mean in a very hot time between China and Taiwan. Could we see a second battle of Guningtou in the near future?
Miles Yu:
Well, I think Guningtou to obviously would be regarded as a precursor to the invasion of Taiwan. Now this Quemoy island, as I say, is just a few kilometers, the closest one two miles away-
Phil Hegseth:
It's six miles from China.
Miles Yu:
Yeah, well the closest one is very close. You can swim there.
Phil Hegseth:
Hey, now you're using kilometers. Look at you.
Miles Yu:
I know.
Phil Hegseth:
I used him the other week and you were ripping me for it and now you're using kilometers.
Miles Yu:
I just want to be intercontinental as you are.
Phil Hegseth:
Yeah. Oh yeah. Now you can. Okay.
Miles Yu:
So I think, let me put it this way, Chinese military strength obviously has grown so much. The Chinese Peoples Liberation Army is not the one that is 74 years ago. So their amphibious capability has grown. But I think this also give us some lessons to learn from. The Chinese amphibious warfare capability have increased, but also they have some weaknesses and vulnerabilities in that kind of area. There could be another battle of Guningtou, I think if we do it right, if we learn the right lessons from the October, 1949 Battle of Quemoy and I think we could prevail again.
Phil Hegseth:
Well, just from a logistical perspective, that being the precursor for the invasion, what do the defenses look like right now in the island of Quemoy? I think what is the defense presence of Taiwan on that island now?
Miles Yu:
I don't think there is any dramatic increase, but there is no dramatic decrease either because it's very sensitive there. You don't want to be unnecessarily provocative. Quemoy is known for a lot of things for its geographic sensitivity in certain way. Quemoy is very much like a West Berlin in Asia because that was the place where the Chinese communist Mao Zedong (毛泽东) launched a [inaudible] on October 23rd, 1958. Shelled that place to no end, millions of shells were fired in the subsequent months and years against that tiny island held by Taiwan. So it was basically a hotspot of the Cold War, almost bring the United States always brought United States into a nuclear confrontation with China. At the time, because it was during the Eisenhower administration, the US joint chief of staff actually had a pretty specific plan to respond to that. Which had the battle of Quemoy, actually the Quemoy crisis, which is known as the second Taiwan Street crisis of 1958, exert enormous impact upon American politics as well. Two years later in 1960 during the presidential election between Richard Nixon and Kennedy, they had the famous TV debates. There were four of them. The last debate was devoted to security issue. The number one issue, the most contested issue was about the defense of Quemoy Island,
Quemoy and Matsu. And so this is really big deal. Of course, people who watch this debates do not remember the contents of that substance of that they care about the Kennedy's hair and Nixon's facial expression. So what I'm saying is Quemoy is very important. So it's not really that heavily defended. But as I said, go back to my earlier point. Quemoy is known for two things. One is Quemoy has this very international renowned kitchen knife, which is, they're cleaver almost like big Chinese chopping board use that. That's mostly made of the Chinese shells. The head.
Phil Hegseth:
Really?
Miles Yu:
Yeah. Warhead didn't really, really explode. So they use the steel to forge the kitchen cleaver, which is a very famous in Taiwan.
Phil Hegseth:
Oh yeah, I'm looking at them. Artillery steel Chinese cleavers. Wow.
Miles Yu:
That's exactly right. And a lot of them, a lot of them. Another thing that Quemoy is famous for, because a lot of soldiers were stationed there, they're kind of away for so long. What's the best way to wash away your woes, your melancholy? Alcohol. So they made this really potent lighter fluid called Jinmen Gaoliang (金门高粱), which is basically, it is like a vodka like hot liquor from Kimo. So I hope if you go to Quemoy someday, hopefully with me and we'll get something back.
Phil Hegseth:
Yeah, maybe some days we can cheers to it. That'd be awesome. Great. I would love it. Well, that's a great place to end. Let's hope we can make it happen. Thanks, Miles. This was a fun one. I look forward to it again next week.
Miles Yu:
Alright, see you next week. Thank you for listening to this episode of China Insider. I'd also like to thank our executive producer, Philip Hegseth, who works tirelessly and professionally behind the scenes for every episode. To make sure we deliver the best quality podcast to you, the listeners, if you enjoy the show, please spread the words for Chinese listeners. Please check our monthly review and analysis episode in Chinese. We'll see you next time.