The impending end of Donald Trump's break-in period is as good a time as any to see where he will go from here. The first 100 days are typically a honeymoon, during which the political knives remain sheathed. Not this time. Political back-stabbing, intra- and interparty, is rife. Democrats are finding time both to attack Trump and to blame each other for their stunning loss to a vulgar property developer who refuses to publish his tax returns. Republican Freedom Caucusers are finding time both to back-stab their speaker and to defy their president. And members of what is laughingly called the Trump team are dueling for access to a president who in the end trusts no one save his family, if them.
Here is what we know about the immediate future. Unless Trump can cut a deal by next Friday with Congress to fund the federal government until permanent financing can be agreed, he will be one of the few government employees showing up for work on his 100th day in office (25 percent of which have been spent at Mar-a-Largo). Other toilers in the public interest will be on what will certainly prove to be paid vacations—days off do not translate into lost pay when you work for the government. Congressional leaders are reassuring the President that there will be no shut-down, and they might be right,
* unless the president demands extra cash for the military and to begin work on his beautiful wall, the first backed by Senator McCain, the second opposed by him;
* unless Democrats demand an equal increase for the welfare state and insist on access to Trump's tax returns;
* unless the Republican Freedom Caucus insists that any deal not increase the deficit as traditionally computed, and/or defund Planned Parenthood;
In short, there will be a shutdown unless everyone in a town in which compromise and sell-out are considered synonyms, agrees to give up something.
On to the next hurdle, and one that was raised several notches last week when a Democrat almost amassed enough votes in a Georgia primary to avoid a run-off and step into the safely Republican seat vacated by Dr. Tom Price when he resigned to join the Trump cabinet as health secretary. Jon Ossoff, a 30-year-old neophyte who does not even live in the district he wants to represent, benefitted from some $8 million of campaign contributions from outside his constituency as newly energized Trump-hating Democratic donors poured money into what will be the first of many efforts to regain control of Congress next year—preferably both houses. This came on the heels of a special congressional election in a Kansas constituency won by Trump by 27 points, but by the Republican candidate by only 7 points. "With liberals energized in their opposition to Trump and hoping to be competitive in more red districts in 2018, Tuesday's vote in Georgia looks set to reverberate into the midterms," opines The Hill. Republican efforts to claim the Georgia and Kansas votes as victories constitute what is best called whistling past the graveyards.
So now it comes down to the old mantra of the Clinton campaigns—no, not the failed effort by Hillary, but the successful one of her more intuitive and people-loving husband: "It's the economy, stupid." Trump has variously promised to increase the economic growth rate from its anemic under-2 percent rate to 3 percent, or 4 percent, or 5 percent, or 6 percent, depending on his mood-du-jour. His treasury secretary, Steve Mnuchin is shooting for 3 percent or a bit more, and with it the jobs and income increases that make for happy voters.
To make that happen, Mnuchin knows he must add tax cuts to his boss's assault on the growth-stifling regulatory state. And given the rules that require that such rate reductions be revenue neutral, he needs the $1tn over ten years that repealing and replacing Obamacare is projected to save, as such a saving is reckoned by Washington bean-counters. That would make room for cutting the corporate tax rate from about 35 percent to the mid-20 percent range. Mnuchin is estimating that by using dynamic scoring -—taking into account the added tax revenues generated by more rapid economic growth—he can get his hands on an additional $2 trillion to provide tax relief for middle-class families, which Trump has promised to do. Gary Cohn says Team-Trump's goal is to honor their leader's campaign promises: lower taxes for corporations and individuals, simplification, improvement of America's competitive position. The only thing the Director of the National Economic Council categorically rules out is a carbon tax.
There is more to the tax story than mere rate cuts. Talk of a border adjustment tax that would tax imports but allow exports to pass tax-free persists, though in the hushed voices reserved for the intensive-care unit. When the president is beyond earshot some whisper about ending the deductibility of interest paid on corporate debt, which would bring an outraged reaction from property developers, current and former.
But none of this will be possible without increasing the deficit unless Obamacare is repealed and replaced, and the saving therefrom in the treasury's pocket. Much noise about negotiations on-going during the recess, with Politico reporting that "Senior White House and Republican Congressional Leaders are planning another health care showdown next week." Trump says he is expecting a vote in the House before the 100th day, which he classes as a major victory. The small matter of the Senate would remain, but let's not be picky when you need a triumph before the mythical 100th day, especially after claiming that it has been the most productive such period in American history, or at least in American history as Trump knows it. In my view it will prove that water runs uphill if the Republicans can end government subsidies, retain coverage for those with prior disabilities, relieve the young and healthy of the "mandate", and prevent the average family's cost from rising while keeping the insurance industry solvent. In the absence of political muscle that the last go at repeal and replace proved the President just does not possess, it would take a Picasso-quality art of the deal to reconcile these competing requirements.
Which brings us back to the calendar. April 28 the government runs out of money; April 29 Trump serves his 100th day. Then, if Mnuchin is right, health care gets solved in time for him to present his tax plan to Congress in August—an "aggressive" deadline "delayed a bit because of health care". Next, Congress approves it in time for 2017 tax filings (April 17, 2018; the 15th is a Sunday), by which time newly revived animal spirits will have the economy humming and continued control of the House and Senate assured. Trump once wrote about his plan for a property development, "I'm lucky because I can afford to wait." Not this time.