The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that, for the first time in the past 100 days (based on polling listed by Real Clear Politics), Donald Trump trails nationally in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. The WSJ/NBC poll was taken entirely after the South Carolina GOP debate, and it hints that Trump's rough showing in that debate—in which Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush both levied effective attacks against him, and Trump made the MoveOn.org-like claim that Bush lied and people died—may have done the businessman some significant damage. NBC News's write-up reads, "Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart and his firm Hart Research Associates, says Trump's drop could signal [the poll's] being 'right on top of a shift in the campaign.'"
The poll finds Cruz in the lead—for the first time in the race in any national poll—with 28 percent support. Trump is a close second with 26 percent, and Marco Rubio is third with 17 percent. In the second division, John Kasich comes in at 11 percent, Ben Carson at 10 percent (about double his tally in most other recent polls, after what some people thought was a strong debate performance), and Bush at 4 percent.
The poll also finds that in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, Cruz and Rubio would each beat Trump by 16 points (56 to 40 percent for Cruz, 57 to 41 percent for Rubio).
The last time Trump trailed in a national poll listed by RCP was in a McClatchy/Marist poll taken in late October and early November, which showed Ben Carson with a narrow 1-point lead. The last time Trump trailed Cruz was in June.