The Des Moines Register, whose poll is generally regarded as the gold standard of Iowa polling, has released its final results before Monday’s Iowa caucuses. It finds Donald Trump in first place, with 28 percent support, and Ted Cruz in second, with 23 percent support. No one else is within a dozen points of Trump. The poll also finds that the race is still fluid: 9 percent of likely caucus-goers are undecided, and another 36 percent say they could still change their minds.
The poll finds Marco Rubio in third place with 15 percent support and Ben Carson in fourth place with 10 percent support. No one else is anywhere near double-digits; Rand Paul is in fifth place at 5 percent, and Chris Christie is in sixth place at 3 percent. The Des Moines Register's write-up says, "Rubio is up 3 percentage points since early January. But there's no indication of a surge: His support declined during the four days of polling."
While the overall results favor Trump, the poll offers some good news for Cruz as well: The Des Moines Register writes, "'The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race,' said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll." The Register continues, "Cruz has the greatest depth of knowledge and experience in the field, a plurality of likely caucusgoers say," and "GOP caucusgoers are more comfortable with Cruz winning the nomination, becoming president and representing the United States to the world than they are with Trump." The Register adds, "If the race eventually comes down to two Republicans, 53 percent say they would prefer Cruz as the nominee, not Trump. Just 35 percent would choose Trump in a one-on-one contest with Cruz."
The poll finds no indication of "a groundswell of new people" heading to the caucuses: "Just 40 percent of the likely GOP electorate is made up of first-time caucusgoers, which is on par with the 38 percent of first-time caucusgoers reflected in 2012 entrance polling."
The polling suggests that prospects for a Trump victory in Iowa could well hinge on how many current Carson or Rubio supporters decide to switch their votes to Cruz in order to stop Trump. The poll finds, "Among Carson's backers, a plurality name Cruz as their second choice. The same is true of Trump's voters, and of Rubio's voters."
The poll was conducted from Tuesday through Friday, so it was mostly taken before Thursday night's GOP debate. It suggests that if Trump has been hurt by his decision not to attend the debate, he doesn't appear to have been hurt all that much: 46 percent say they don't care about Trump's choice not to attend, 29 percent say they disapprove, and 24 percent say they approve.