The US in the South Caucasus: Mapping New Strategic Opportunities 

Listen to Event Audio

Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East will host a conference, featuring a keynote address by Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), to examine the implications of the recent Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement. The conference will also explore the evolving role of the United States in the South Caucasus and assess how renewed peace efforts could reshape the Eurasian strategic landscape.

Agenda

9:30 a.m. | Opening Remarks

• Michael Doran, Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, Hudson Institute

9:45 a.m. | Panel 1: Regional Implications of Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace

Panelists will discuss new opportunities for regional cooperation, next steps for energy and transit integration, and the challenges in sustaining peace in a new security architecture.

• Ilan Berman, Senior Vice President, American Foreign Policy Council
• Luke Coffey, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
• Michael Doran, Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, Hudson Institute
• Efgan Nifti, Chief Executive Officer, Caspian Policy Center (CPC)

11:00 a.m. | Keynote

•   Senator Steve Daines, United States Senator, Montana

12:00 p.m. | Panel 2: The Future of US-Azerbaijan Relations

Focusing on Washington’s strategic approach to Baku, this discussion will examine the role of US-Azerbaijan relations in advancing security, connectivity, and the broader Middle Corridor initiative.

• Michael Doran, Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, Hudson Institute
• Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim, Ambassador of Azerbaijan to the United States

Event Transcript

This transcription is automatically generated and edited lightly for accuracy. Please excuse any errors.

Mike Doran:

Good morning, distinguished guests, colleagues and friends, and Rich Altson. I'm Mike Doran, the Director for the Center of Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute. It's a privilege to welcome you to this important discussion on the evolving strategic landscape of the South Caucasus. Hudson Institute is dedicated to advancing American security and prosperity through rigorous policy analysis.

We respect the enduring principles of American foreign policy, but we also recognize reality. Domestic politics are shifting and global dynamics are changing. These changes demand that we think in new ways. That imperative brings us to the South Caucasus, especially at this pivotal moment following the historic White House meeting between President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia. That White House meeting signaled not only the possibility of lasting peace in the region, a region long marked by conflict, but also the emergence of new opportunities for the United States, opportunities that could reshape connectivity across Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia.

The Trump administration understands that the South Caucasus is no longer a peripheral theater as far as American interests are concerned. It is becoming a linchpin in global geopolitics. It stands at the crossroads of Russian ambition, Turkish and Iranian influence, and Chinese economic reach. It is a point where the interests of all the world's great powers intersect, sometimes converging, sometimes clashing. Azerbaijan in particular stands out as a vital partner for the United States.

As Zbigniew Brzezinski, I love to say the phrase the name, Zbigniew Brzezinski, just rolls off the tongue. As Zbigniew Brzezinski once put it, see, I've already said it twice there, as Zbigniew Brzezinski once put it, Azerbaijan, when viewed from Moscow, is the cork in the bottle of Central Asia. It is the West gateway to the region's vast resources and strategic pathways. As an energy hub, a transit corridor, and a security ally positioned among Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the Caspian Basin, Baku plays a unique role.

Its infrastructure, channels, trade and energy along routes that bypass Moscow and Tehran, reducing the leverage of America's rivals. How should Washington balance the support for regional security with the competing influences of Russia, China, and Iran? And how can American policy help drive economic integration and infrastructure developments that turn the South Caucasus into a true gateway to Central Asia and beyond? These are some of the questions that we will be addressing today.

As we move through today's panels, our goal is to approach these questions with clarity and purpose. By examining both policy options and structural forces, we aim to chart a course for American engagement that supports regional stability and strengthens our broader geopolitical objectives across the Middle East and Eurasia. Thank you for joining us. I look forward to a forthright and thought-provoking exchange of ideas. So let's begin, and can I ask the panelists for our first session to take the stage? All right. Okay, wonderful. I think your bios are all contained in the-

Luke Coffey:

I would like to hear mine repeated.

Mike Doran:

We have two distinguished guests here and Luke Coffey at the end. Luke Coffey does a wonderful job here, as his name suggests, making the coffee. Do you want to hear more? That's why it's so poor. The coffee's so bad. No, the bios are in the books so I'll just forego and just jump right into it. And Efkan, can I start with you?

Efgan Nifti:

Yeah.

Mike Doran:

Can you just give us your appraisal of the general situation, the moment we're in? This is a moment, as I tried to suggest. So just give us your appraisal of what's happening in general in the region and the opportunities for the United States.

Efgan Nifti:

Mike, thank you so much, and I would like to thank Hudson for organizing this important conversation. The impressions that I got in my last travel to the region, actually, I'm coming from a tour to Astana, Tashkent and Baku, which kind of illustrates the momentum that's in the region. First I want to say that what happened on August 8 is a new start of new era in South Caucasus.

We had a protracted conflict for 30 years ongoing. Lots of people lost their lives. And finally, since that signing, no single shot had been fired in the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia. So we see a big reconciliation in the region, and I remember our article with Luke Coffey about Ganja Gap a few years ago-

Luke Coffey:

Several years ago, yeah.

Efgan Nifti:

. . . several years ago, and we were talking about very narrow gap that provides access, which you eloquently illustrated in your opening remarks. Now I see the widening of that space where we can see finally Central Asia through the Caucasus can connect to the global markets in a more advantageous way, which is a critical moment for the region because a region that is stuck between Chinese influence but also Russian humiliation.

Now we finally see a very important opening for the whole area. So this peace agreement is also exciting. Our friends, all five countries of Central Asia, not only Caucasus, and finally we see that interest aligned by all eight countries in the region. And now we can talk about something they can do together, where they can freely kind of balance their trade with overseas, but also start establishing true sovereignty for these countries.

And I think this August agreement is a keystone for all of these developments, because even when we check the desire in the region to attract the FDI investments, et cetera, but having a ongoing conflict has been a big issue for that. Now that we have it off the table, we also see a lot of external players trying to come into the region and trying to make deals. It goes to Europeans. We have Gulf countries, we have Korea, Japan, and others who are trying to see what space they can place in this region. And obviously I think as US successfully managed to work with the region to bring resources of the Caspian to global markets, this is another big step forward in making this pivotal region to be connected with the global players.

Mike Doran:

That's great. Thanks. Elon, let me turn to you and just ask you as well to give your general assessment of the moment and the opportunity for the United States.

Ilan Berman:

Right. Well, no, I think Efkan is absolutely right. What strikes me is how pivotal the moment is and how little we're paying attention just as a nation, right? The policymakers in Washington are aware, but I think that understanding hasn't really trickled down. And if I were to be asked to simplify this, I would say we have three moving parts, right? The moving part of Azerbaijan continuing its pro-Western trajectory, Azerbaijan in foreign policy terms, is in a very advantageous place, because Russia has preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, which Luke and I have written a lot about.

Armenia is not uncomplicated, but in a halting pro-Western trajectory, which is something we'll talk about later I'm sure in terms of it needing to be nurtured. And then there's how this new peace deal and new dynamism plays into the regional connectivity that you're already seeing in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia over the last several years. Over the last several years, you could say that this was a little bit unbalanced. Uzbekistan was the leader of this. There were Uzbek reforms. There was a very clear willingness to try to integrate the region and have the region hang together rather than hanging separately when they face Russia, when they face China.

Now you have new impetus for that. You have a new deal that solves, I would hope permanently, but certainly solves in the medium term a vexing conflict that has prevented the South Caucasus from integrating fully. So you have a conversation now about really intra-regional cooperation between Central Asia and the South Caucasus. And this all overlays over great power rivalry, because that's what we talk about here in town, right? It's not how the other players are moving around. And it's absolutely true that there's new attention to the South Caucasus as a result of this deal.

But the big movers here, and frankly the big losers here, are Russia, Iran is certainly a loser in this deal because the deal severs . . . Azerbaijan and Iran have no love loss for one another, but it has the ability to sever Armenia's previously robust ties to Iran. But it also potentially, because it boosts American competitiveness, because there's a new trade corridor, which the White House is going to be watching and cultivating and nurturing very closely, it also boosts American competitiveness as a way of offsetting potential Chinese dominance. So I think for all these moments, we should be paying much more attention to this as a zone of opportunity.

Mike Doran:

When you say we, you mean the-

Ilan Berman:

American industry, the American government is seized of it, but the policy community and sort of the country at large, right? We're not good with maps, right, generally. I think we're worse with maps now than we were before. And so this is all sort of very broad brush for most of us. The more we can highlight the stakes, the more we can highlight the specifics, which I tried to lay out, the more you can convince companies and government officials who don't have this as their portfolio, that this is actually something that's worth watching.

Mike Doran:

I always like to quote Mark Twain, he didn't actually say this, but he should have that God created wars to teach Americans geography, but we had a war in the South Caucasus, nobody notices anyway.

Ilan Berman:

Fair, fair.

Mike Doran:

Luke, let's turn to you with the same question, but I wonder if I could also ask you to address the connection between the Ukraine war especially and the developments in the South Caucasus.

Luke Coffey:

Well, thanks Mike for moderating, and I echo what my two colleagues have said. It's difficult to go last when two esteemed colleagues are speaking before you, and they've really covered the basis, but perhaps I could add a few finer points to the discussion. On the historic importance of August 8, that goes without saying, but in many ways the real work begins now to get this agreement finally implemented to get the peace treaty ratified by both the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis.

There's going to be a few pivotal points over the next year or so that's going to determine how successful this is going to be. One of them will be elections in Armenia in June. There's no doubt that Russian and Iranian disinformation campaigns will try to discredit Pashinyan, discredit this peace process, undermine what President Trump has done in the region. And then on the Azerbaijan side, I think they're going to want to see a shovel in dirt on the Trump route for international peace and prosperity trip. They're going to want to see real progress on this.

And my biggest fear is that the cameras have turned off, the spotlights are off, the ceremony is over, all the back-slapping has taken place, the applauding is over, and the administration might lose interest and not follow up. I have no reason to think that this will be the case, but it's nevertheless a concern of mine. I hope that there's quick action on realizing the trip, the Trump route for international peace of prosperity, for those who may not be familiar, this is a key transit route that will link Azerbaijan proper with its enclave, Nakhchivan transiting through 26 miles of Armenian territory, which I came of this idea that'd make for a perfect marathon. 26 miles. I can make it 26.2.

Mike Doran:

I would agree with you if I could run 26.2 miles.

Luke Coffey:

I look forward to running it someday.

Ilan Berman:

I look forward to driving it.

Luke Coffey:

But we need to identify the companies that are going to be involved in this. We need to get contracts signed. We need to get, like I said, the shovels in the dirt. And I think this will alleviate some of the concerns that Baku might have. Now tying this to the broader geopolitical situation, I think it's without a doubt that Russian influence in the region has been waning. Many people mark the events, the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, as maybe the start point of this. I actually think it goes back a little further.

And for me, the wake-up call was during the second Karabakh war five years ago, as we said here today, I was surprised. I shouldn't have been surprised, but I was surprised then when Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, two countries that are members of the collective Security Treaty Organization, which Armenia is a part of, think of this as like a Russia's like Temu version of NATO. And then you have these two countries also in the organization of, well, what we now call the Organization of Turkic States, which was named something different back then.

They release a statement in support of their Turkic brothers and sisters in Azerbaijan, even though they were part of a same Collective Treaty Security Organization with Armenia. And I thought, "Wow, there's a saying in English, blood runs thicker than water." And for me, I thought this is an interesting development that these two countries would just automatically and very publicly, I mean they could have just kept quiet, very publicly sided with Azerbaijan in that conflict. And I thought, "Well, this must mean new powers are emerging on the stage. Other powers are waning in their influence." And for me, that was the start point where I first identified that perhaps Russian influence in the region is not as powerful as it used to be.

And then when President Trump came back into the Oval Office, in many ways he was pushing at an open door. I think both Yerevan and Baku were increasingly frustrated with Moscow's inability to broker deals that it could enforce. We saw with the ceasefire agreement in November of 2020, several of the provisions in that agreement were never implemented, and Moscow seemed unwilling to see these through. So I think the war in Ukraine has just sped this up. So Russian influence was always on the trajectory downwards in the region, but the war in Ukraine, the problems that Russia has had in Ukraine has certainly sped that process up.

Mike Doran:

If I could just stay with you for a second, you mentioned this apprehension you have that we may lose attention after the lights go out on the big event. I'm sure that President Putin's attention is never going to wane. The South Caucasus were in one way or another part of the Russian Empire, in the Russian sphere of influence for 200 years. Almost as long as the United States has been a country, the Russians have been in control of the South Caucasus, and now that's breaking away.

I don't believe that they're going to allow it. I mean the Trump route for international peace and prosperity when announced must have evoked a scream from President Putin. And I can't believe that the Russians are going to let the Americans move into what they consider to be their sphere of influence like this without a fight. So when you say you're apprehensive, are you also apprehensive about a Russian counter move?

Luke Coffey:

Yeah, I think there will be Russian counter moves, and this is why I identify the upcoming elections in Armenia as being crucial in this process. Russia is not happy with this arrangement. Iran is not happy with the fact that Mike Doran and Luke Coffey will be running a marathon along 26 miles.

Mike Doran:

You'll be running, I'll be walking America.

Luke Coffey:

But in all seriousness, that the US has played this pivotal role in an area that is along the Iranian border. So that's why we need to take the steps now to make sure that we can see that this process is implemented, that we see it through. I published a paper earlier this month. Next step-

Mike Doran:

This is the moment when we move.

Luke Coffey:

Next steps for Armenia Azerbaijan peace, there's a copy out there where I outlined what I think the administration needs to do. And the first thing would be to show up. The last Secretary of State to visit Baku or Yerevan was Secretary Hillary Clinton in 2012. Can you believe it? That's the last Secretary of State. No sitting US president has visited Azerbaijan. I think it's time for this to change.

And one final point, you talk about Russia's influence in the South Caucasus. While we should celebrate this great achievement that has been brokered by President Trump and his leadership in the White House on Armenian Azerbaijan, we should not forget that there is another occupation taking place in the South Caucasus in Georgia where Russian authorities occupied 20 percent of Georgia's internationally recognized borders. And I suspect as we've been seeing with recent events in Georgia, as Russian influence gets slightly pushed out of Armenia and Azerbaijan, there's going to be more focus on what's happening in Georgia.

Mike Doran:

Thanks. I was going to end the panel by asking for recommendations, and you've already given us one, and we'll hold this in our minds that just show up a recommendation. Efkan, I wonder if we could take a little bit of a step back and talk about the agreement in the White House, because there's a range of interpretations out there about is this an agreement or an agreement to agree, I guess it would be the way to put it. Some people are saying it's all spectacle, no substance. Other people are saying it's an enormous amount of substance with a to-do list attached. Can you characterize for us what you think the nature of the agreement is?

Efgan Nifti:

This is a very tough question, but I think very important question. The 17 points that have been agreed previously about the Azerbaijan-Armenia bilateral conversations, and I think in practice we see it getting implemented actually, even though there is no final, final piece signed basically. But I think what was initialed was a product of a very hard negotiations, and there was a process that started about demarcation in the northern parts of the border between the two countries, but also in practice we haven't seen any active facilities since then. That's one part because there's no Azerbaijanis or Armenians dying at this point.

And also one important item happened actually yesterday, maybe Ambassador Ibrahim will be talking about this as well. Azerbaijan has lifted a transit embargo for Armenia to have grain from Kazakhstan to go to Armenia, and for many years there has not been any transit exchange between the two countries. So I see on the practical level, despite not having the final, final document basically, there is in practice and action towards implementing the points that have been agreed. That's one part.

But there is also expectation, as I understand from our conversations in the region, that there will be a referendum or constitutional change in Armenia in coming years or months, and after that because from the Azerbaijani interpretation, the clauses that contains in the Armenian constitution, or preamble to the Constitution, includes sections that says territory claims towards Azerbaijan. So that is expected to be removed in that sense that this peace agreement can be signed finally.

But I think after the initialing of the agreement, we already see in practice parties are implementing steps, taking steps. And also today also civil society representatives from Baku went to Yerevan as well. There's a dialogue in multiple levels basically, but also a ceasefire in the diplomatic and international platforms as well as getting implemented. We see less combative rhetoric from both sides.

In that sense, I feel that in actuality we see in practice the process that's moving forward. At the same time, coming back to the August 8 agreement, trip corridor and the implementation of that process, US already made a down payment for $145 million, which to my estimation, to what I understand when we discussed with some experts on that, it's well more than enough for the realization of that 25-mile section of the corridor basically.

Mike Doran:

How significant is the American participation here? Because for me personally, I agree with what Elon said before that I think this part of the world matters enormously, and I'm always disappointed to see how little attention it gets, not just among the American public but in Washington. So for me, the mere fact that President Trump put a big American flag with a Trump name on it in this region was a very big deal. But there is this other quality of the negotiation, which I have never seen before between two other adversaries.

And what I mean by that is that this negotiation between President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan is kind of a moveable feast. One day they're in Moscow, another day they're in Brussels, another day they're in Washington. And it's the same negotiation, but in terms of external mediation or external hosting, it moves around. I don't think I've ever seen another major conflict that had so many external sponsors who had so many different interests, and yet it was the same negotiation going on. So with those two things in mind, how significant do you think the American participation was?

Efgan Nifti:

I think that's very important point to highlight. I received a question, one of the US colleagues asking them why did they came to Washington but they didn't go to Moscow or London or Paris, other places. I would say that it speaks to our credibility and President Trump's credibility with the two nations, because there have been multiple calls, multiple summits. We've seen France organizing it, Russia organizing it, lots of mediators in that.

Two things worked there. The two leaders did understand each other, they managed to work the differences and also they put their bets with Washington in that sense and came to President Trump to sign this deal. I think that is speaking. We have a lot of criticism about the US in terms of our credibility globally, but I think at least for this part of the world, it speaks to our credibility in terms of getting this deal signed in Washington, kind of putting our signature under that agreement.

But also I think another big win is here. We talk a lot about Central Asia strategy that we put together back in 2017. It includes a lot of valuable goals for us. But I think in terms of moving towards that goals, we haven't done much. And one issue was the presence or being visible in the region. That's one question. But also we haven't done strategic steps in that direction. I think with this US basic down payment and involvement in this process, we are getting involved with a very big strategic project that is the middle corridor that's going to happen. It's already moving anyways and obviously there is a lot of attention from China, others in that space.

But having US signature on that particular section, critical section of the corridor, is very important, which was followed by big deals in September by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which encouraged them to come to US and sign those agreements, buying US infrastructure for implementation of that corridor. Just an example is Uzbeks committed about $8 billion to purchase Boeing aircrafts, but also Kazakhs invested about $4 billion for Wabtec locomotives. So basically it is kind of putting US imprint to an area that is going to move. I was concerned very much about the last couple of years that this is going to happen anyway, and we are not part of the conversation.

Mike Doran:

Sorry, Elon, I'll come to you. A little bit of patience. I just have one more follow up-

Ilan Berman:

All patient.

Mike Doran:

. . . Efkan. In a way, is it an exaggeration to say that President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan chose the United States as the venue in which to make this peace?

Efgan Nifti:

I think they chose it, yes.

Mike Doran:

And that then brings in train all kinds of-

Efgan Nifti:

Yes. I think them trusting US on this, also giving a message to other friends in the region to follow the similar path, so-

Efgan Nifti:

Friends in the region to follow the similar path. So I don't want to make the announcement here, but probably, US will be announcing soon a similar engagement with the Central Asians, I think.

Mike Doran:

Go ahead and make the announcement now.

Efgan Nifti:

No, I don't want to do-

Mike Doran:

Break some news.

Efgan Nifti:

But, no I-

Luke Coffey:

I think you just did, actually.

Efgan Nifti:

But what I know is that there will be a similar kind of engagement with the Central Asian countries incoming.

Mike Doran:

All right, well that's very interesting.

Efgan Nifti:

Yeah.

Mike Doran:

Okay, Elon, break some news for us here.

Ilan Berman:

Okay, I-

Mike Doran:

The-

Ilan Berman:

. . . I got nothing, I'm sorry.

Mike Doran:

I'd ask you to react to anything you've heard from Luke and Efgan. But also I'd like to take us back to this question of the enemy gets a vote.

Ilan Berman:

Right.

Mike Doran:

And if you're sitting in Tehran or especially in Moscow-

Ilan Berman:

Right.

Mike Doran:

None of this is very welcome. And also, I mean, let's also be clear too, there are actors on the ground in Armenia.

Ilan Berman:

That's right.

Mike Doran:

And let me not forget the Armenian lobby, ANCA and others here in Washington, that are opposed to this and opposed to Pashinyan. I have to mention them because I never miss an opportunity to express my distaste for them, okay. And I can now do that with the complete support of Prime Minister Pashinyan.

Ilan Berman:

Right.

Mike Doran:

So all of these actors are going to be working to scuttle this and open this.

Ilan Berman:

Absolutely. No, no, absolutely. So there's a lot there, so let me try to sort of thread everything together. So I think Luke said, in a more pithy fashion, exactly what I was trying to say. The, showing up is crucial, because the deal is not enough. There's this old American saying, "Sometimes, to make a problem smaller, you have to make it bigger." In this particular case, more international attention limits Iranian influence, limits Russian influence and frankly, limits Chinese influence. The more stakeholders there are, the more modest the slice of the pie that Beijing gets. So I think that's a crucial step.

I think Yifkan is absolutely right. I think the fact that Washington, not the only, but certainly the most high-profile venue for this rollout, this movable feast as you called it, I think speaks to the fact that, first of all, there's Washington's credibility. You can sort of make an argument that maybe Beijing can play that role also, but Moscow cannot play that role. And Europe is, in political terms, a spent force, which is something people to the east of, say, Germany, understand very well. So the fact that Washington is the venue, makes a lot of sense to me. It's also, I think, a reflection of a recognition of how President Trump's negotiating style differs from everything else. Everything else has always been, let's do a deal and maybe then the trade will come. Not in every case, but in a lot of the peace treaties, peace deals, ceasefire deals, so on, that you've seen the president negotiate since he's come back into office over the last nine months or so, there is, front and center, an economic component.

There is the deal. So you think about, laugh if you want, but Gaza Lago in the context of the Gaza Strip, you think about mineral deals associated with the DRCPs deal and so on and so forth. So this administration is thinking a little bit differently, because they're not sequencing development after security. What they're saying is that because of development, security will come. And frankly, that's why the trip outline talks, not about America securing the region's stability through military force, but rather through economic buy-in. And that's a huge difference, that's not something that we've tried with the region before and frankly, it's something that reflects very much how the region itself is thinking about it.

So when I made my first remarks, I mentioned sort of the push in Central Asia, not in the Caucasus so much, but in Central Asia, towards integration. But this is precisely it, there's the understanding that if you're divided, if you don't have transport routes that connect, if you don't have durable trade ties, you can get picked off by predatory actors, whether from Moscow or from Beijing. And so this idea of integrating and integrating across regions now-

Mike Doran:

Sorry, I'm sorry to interrupt you.

Ilan Berman:

Yeah.

Mike Doran:

Can you say that sentence again? 'Cause I'm not sure I followed you completely.

Ilan Berman:

Sure.

Mike Doran:

The, how do you get picked off?

Ilan Berman:

You get picked off by, for example, I've been going to Uzbekistan since the only way to get to Uzbekistan was to fly by way of a Russian airport. And it's a very, very recent development that you could actually fly to regional capitals from other regional capitals. And just that, the ability of diplomats to go seamlessly from one capital to another in the region, is a game changer, because you don't have to transit through or coordinate with Moscow as a result. So things like that. But even beyond that, energy routes, and trade ties, and small and medium-sized businesses, the growth of the private sector in places like Uzbekistan, certainly in Kazakhstan. So all of that is to the good, all of that breaks the monopoly that Russia had and China wants to have over the region.

And the last point, to your point, you asked, does the enemy get the vote? This is why I think showing up is so important. Because the enemy absolutely gets the vote. And here, the big enemy, I would argue, is Russia. But the Russians have a problem. First of all, their economy is not doing well. I don't know if you guys have noticed, but their economy's not doing well. The Ukraine War has fundamentally reoriented the way the Russian economy runs. If you look at consumer goods, they're down somewhere between 28 and 40 percent in terms of production, because all they're producing is military equipment. So they're less competitive in terms of exports. And they're also, if you've noticed what's happening with their workforce, their labor force, Russia has historically relied on Central Asian, South Caucasian labor, very extensively. But as Putin has clamped down, as Putin has eliminated dissent and become more authoritarian, more nationalistic, there's a decline in the amount of regional labor that's heading to Russia. So those two things, they-

Mike Doran:

I did not notice that. That's a big point.

Ilan Berman:

Yeah. So those two things make-

Mike Doran:

Yeah.

Ilan Berman:

. . . Make Russia less able to interfere as long as we show up.

Mike Doran:

The courage of, both President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan of openly defying Putin-

Ilan Berman:

Right.

Mike Doran:

Has been striking to me, really, really striking to me.

Ilan Berman:

Absolutely. And again, it's not a done deal. And in the case of Azerbaijan, I think you can make a very credible case that Azerbaijan has been signaling that it took a turn and it's sort of non-bashful about taking a turn. In the case of Armenia, Luke's point that the upcoming Armenian elections are central, is, I think, huge. First of all, because there are headwinds that Prime Minister Pashinyan is facing, but also because, in the context of what America wants, what we have now is an Armenian Prime Minister, not an uncomplicated situation, not necessarily a thoroughly powerful Armenian Prime Minister, but an Armenian Prime Minister that has already committed to delivering what President Trump wants. So we have a vested interest in his success.

Mike Doran:

Right.

Ilan Berman:

Changing horses in midstream does not do.

Mike Doran:

And he's got to sell this to his own, these-

Ilan Berman:

Exactly. And so we have to show up and we have to show support.

Mike Doran:

And staying with you now, I think that there were two men whose presence was felt in the Oval Office, but who were not actually there physically. And those are Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Benjamin Netanyahu.

Ilan Berman:

Correct.

Mike Doran:

I think that both of them influenced Donald Trump to see this as a major opportunity for the United States. And it's striking, because there's no love loss between the two of them.

Ilan Berman:

No, no, correct.

Mike Doran:

But they're reading that part of the map in the same way. But you mentioned, the United States is leading with the economics and we are not committing troops.

Ilan Berman:

Right.

Mike Doran:

So to the extent that this is a hard security move-

Ilan Berman:

Right.

Mike Doran:

And it always is in this part of the world, the muscle behind this, really, is Azerbaijani military power, but also Turkish military power. I mean, in this corner of the world you've got three hard power contestants, the Turks, the Russians, and the Iranians. And the space for freedom of movement that President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan had is really offered by the Turkish military-

Ilan Berman:

Right.

Mike Doran:

On some level. And so I'm highlighting the difficulty of Prime Minister Pashinyan, because he has to sell to his own public, which has not been raised on a love of Turkish military power, to put it lightly, he has to sell an alignment with Azerbaijan and Turkey, over Russia and Iran, to his own public. And that gets a lot easier if the United States is involved.

Ilan Berman:

Absolutely, that's exactly right.

Mike Doran:

Because he can sell it to his public as an alignment with the West, not with the Turks.

Ilan Berman:

No, I think that's right. And as I said before, sometimes, to make a problem smaller, you have to make it bigger. And in the context of Azerbaijan, the Israelis are super interested. Are super interested because, as an Azeri diplomat, in my last trip into Israel, put it to me, Azerbaijan has-

Mike Doran:

I know who that is.

Ilan Berman:

Yeah, yeah, I'm sure you do. Put it to me-

Mike Doran:

'Cause there aren't that many in-

Ilan Berman:

There aren't that many, no, no. That Azerbaijan doesn't need to join the Abraham Accords, because Azerbaijan's ties to Israel are so robust that it's sort of leapfrogged over the Abraham Accords. And yet, it's very clear that Israeli officials and also increasingly, folks who work on the Middle East here in Washington, are thinking about Azerbaijan in the context of the Abraham Accords. And so the play for Azerbaijan makes a lot of sense. The play for Armenia is more tenuous, it's a harder sell, as you pointed out. And that's where the American line becomes, sort of the American participation and American endorsement, and the potential for American restraint of Turkey, if it comes to that, becomes, I think, crucial as a confidence building measure.

Mike Doran:

Let me do it one more time. Wouldn't it be nice if we had an Armenian lobby in the United States that was in favor of the American interest and not the Russian-Iranian interest? Luke, on that note-

Luke Coffey:

Yeah.

Mike Doran:

I'll stop taking shots at the Armenian lobby, but I can't help it, it's just too fun. If I can ask you, since you have shown a great interest in the organization of Turkic states, if you could talk a little bit about the Turkish role in all of this and the implications for Turkey moving forward and also for the association among all of these.

Luke Coffey:

Yeah, I think it's beyond just Turkiye itself, it's the Turkic world, however you want to define, I mean, I would define this as the countries and peoples who have linguistic, cultural, historic ties to the Turkic identity. Which spans from places in the Balkans to, of course, western China, up into the Russian Arctic, and everything in between. And I think that after centuries, in some cases, of Russian imperial rule and in some cases Persian rule, but mainly Russian, in the past few decades there's been a new found realization of people's Turkic identity that was suppressed with Russian rule, Russian language, Russian culture, this sort of thing. And we're seeing this manifest itself today throughout the region, where you have countries jettisoning the Cyrillic alphabet, using a Latinized version for their own alphabets, the soft power.

Now in this case, Turkey is very important here, the soft power of Turkish cinema, television, music, culture, the Turkish economic power throughout Central Asia. And you're seeing these countries come together and they're becoming an important actor, they're becoming a pole on the Eurasian landmass. And as Americans look at, I know I often get struck down by my fellow conservatives when I describe the world as being multipolar. I do think it's multipolar. This doesn't mean that every pole is the same or that everyone has. . . They're all equal in power. I don't think you can deny that there aren't different actors around the world with power and influence that are competing against each other. And in fact, I think if you took a diplomat from 1880 and a diplomat from 1980 and you had both diplomats chronogenically frozen, and then you thawed both of them out today, it'd be the one from 1880 that would best recognize the geopolitical situation that we find ourselves in.

And I think what we're witnessing right now is an emerging poll on the Eurasian land mass that will balance in some cases, in other cases compete and God forbid, in other cases, maybe see conflict between what is emerging as a Chinese pole, a Russian pole, and India's involvement, and then you'll have the Turkic world. And this is growing, I mean, this is happening whether you like it or not, this is the reality on the ground in the region. And I think it's time that the US policymakers understand this, recognize this, engage with this. I would love to see, one of the recommendations in my report is for the US at the, well, it'd be at the foreign ministers level, but for secretary of state level to have a meeting or a mini summit with the OTS. Let's get that dialogue going.

Everyone's passing through Istanbul just because of the fantastic air connections. When US officials go through Istanbul, take a couple of hours and go visit the headquarters of the OTS, learn more about this organization ,because I think it's becoming increasingly important. And how it ties to this discussion here today, when the trip route is realized and it becomes operational, it will add another key component of physically linking that Turkic world from Turkiye, across the South Caucasus, across the Caspian and into Central Asia. And I don't think we should underestimate the geopolitical significance of that.

Mike Doran:

This opens up a couple of avenues, maybe I won't stay with you for all of them, but let me just stay with you for a second, and ask you, in terms of concepts that the United States should have, shouldn't we now be thinking of the Central Asian states and Azerbaijan as a block, or as a unit? So that we don't think of Central Asia as the other side of the Caspian, but really, because of the role that Azerbaijan plays as the gateway to the West-

Luke Coffey:

Yeah.

Mike Doran:

We should also be thinking of them strategically as a unit, does that make sense?

Luke Coffey:

Of course. I mean, this makes perfect sense and this is why I think initiatives like the C5+1, which this year marks the 10 anniversary of, maybe should be the C5+2. How do we get Azerbaijan involved in this format?

Mike Doran:

Sorry, the-

Luke Coffey:

So the C5 is the five Central Asian states, four of which are part of OTS or Turkic. The fifth, Tajikistan, is not ethnically or linguistically Turkic, instead, more Persian-based. But they still are a Central Asia block. And for the reasons that Efgan mentioned, I mean, just look at a map. In fact, you can look at a map, because there are several maps in that paper, my research paper that you might have. For the US or for anyone to reach Central Asian markets and you want to avoid Russian or Iranian land or airspace, you have to go through Azerbaijan, there's no other way. From the Arctic to the Arabian Sea, you have about 3,200 miles, and of that you only have about 100 miles that is not either going through Russia or going through Iran.

So Azerbaijan is geographically crucial for the rest of the world that might want to engage with Central Asia and not have to deal with the shenanigans of going through Russian airspace, Iranian airspace, or using Iranian or Russian territory. This makes Azerbaijan in general and specifically a term that Efgan and I coined back, I think, in 2017, the Ganja gap, in particular, being th-

Mike Doran:

This was because of your deep love of marijuana?

Luke Coffey:

It's because Ganja is the second largest city in Azerbaijan.

Mike Doran:

Oh, oh, oh.

Luke Coffey:

of all the historical cities,

Mike Doran:

Oh, it was a geographic reference.

Efgan Nifti:

Yeah.

Luke Coffey:

And I knew that people would remember this because of that reference.

Efgan Nifti:

Yeah.

Luke Coffey:

I see you're up on your street slang there, Mike.

Efgan Nifti:

There's a Wikipedia page.

Luke Coffey:

Yeah, there's a Wikipedia page on-

Mike Doran:

I'm up on the street slang from 1983.

Ilan Berman:

Yeah, right.

Luke Coffey:

But to get back to the issue at hand. This is probably the most important trade transit choke point that you've never heard of, and it's time that we acknowledge this. And I would like, when the next central Asian strategy is carried out, which we're due for one, it's usually done about every five years. I know, Dick Hoagland in the audience, he played a role in the, would've been 2015 one, I think. The 2020 one that was released, focused heavily on Central Asia and Afghanistan, because there was a lot of focus on Afghanistan at the time. Well, clearly situation's changed in Afghanistan and I would like to see the next Central Asia strategy really focus on interconnectivity, linking, integrating the region. And of course, Azerbaijan is a key player in all of that.

Mike Doran:

Efgan, can I ask you to talk a little bit about China, because we keep mentioning Central Asia, first of all, we're talking about routes from east to west.

Efgan Nifti:

Yeah.

Mike Doran:

And the, Chinese have been very much involved in building infrastructure for transport from east to west. And the Chinese have to have a view, it's very easy to see that the Russians and the Iranians are really upset about this, about the developments and the entry of the United States into the region. The Chinese are harder to read, and so any thoughts you have about the relations, the attitude that Chinese have? But also the attitude of the United States should have about China.

Efgan Nifti:

I think in this part of the world we are talking about, probably China-US agenda is a huge agenda, but when we-

Mike Doran:

Yeah.

Efgan Nifti:

Come to this part of the world, China sees this area as a strategic area for themselves. Because after the COVID, first overseas travel the Chinese president had, was to Kazakhstan. He even celebrated his birthday in Kazakhstan as well.

Mike Doran:

I did not know that.

Efgan Nifti:

Yeah-

Mike Doran:

That's very interesting.

Efgan Nifti:

It's an important fact, because as you mentioned about showing up issue, pretty much every year we see China doing a summit with these countries, on the heads of states level, not on the level of foreign minister or anything. Still, for China, Russia route is a big importance, they're using 95 percent land route through Russia to reach the European markets. Obviously their biggest trade partner is Europe, and for them it's important to have that access. But at the same time, they're also looking to see how they can diversify that connection. And obviously for them having access through Central Asia is important, but interesting fact, that their primary interest is in the resources that are in Central Asia. Just perhaps a few examples on that, over 50 percent of global uranium production is in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, even about quarter of US imports is coming from that-

Mike Doran:

Sorry, will you repeat that statistic, it's pretty striking.

Efgan Nifti:

Over 50 percent of uranium production globally, is in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. That's how important they are. And about quarter of our imports on uranium is coming from that region, for the United States. And given the numbers that we have seen few days ago on the rare earths and critical minerals, that China is controlling about 90 percent of processing it, even when we produce these materials in Alaska, we send them to China to pre-process, then come back to United States. And in that sense, it is a competition area for a lot of powers. And Russia has long been taking it granted, because they had a much more access and they had kind of more influence business-wise, et cetera. Now that this region becomes more diversified relationship, and China also is interested in that. They also receive a lot of gas from Turkmenistan, I guess 80 percent of Turkmen gas goes to China and they keep building.

So I see that most of the Chinese investments in the region is towards perhaps getting the resources out of the region and bringing them to China to be processed basically. So given that numbers, US also has only 11 percent of global access to the rare earths and minerals in that sense. So for us, as we did a deal with Ukraine on the rare earths and critical minerals, we have an opportunity to do the same thing with this region. And I think for China, that's going to be something that they will compete with us. But what I understand from our conversations in the region, the region is more interested to have a diversified relationship in that, because what China is doing is, they bring the labor, they bring the investment, and they don't leave any know-how for the host countries.

Mike Doran:

Right.

Efgan Nifti:

African experience is very interesting. On the infrastructure side, the good part about this middle corridor is that most of the investments are not done by China, countries do not owe to China about infrastructure, as we did in Sri Lanka and other places. This is not the same experience. Most of the ports and critical infrastructure built in the region is either done by IFIs or also local state money that was put there. But we're in the critical stage that this is going to be activated and it'll depend on whose software is going to run and who's going to be providing the landscape for this.

In that purpose, I think, us, is a good time to be there. And this critical connection through the Trans-Caspian is the major route that will be accessed for, I think, not only just oil and gas that we have, it'll be for digital connectivity under the Trans-Caspian. Which are talking about connecting the region over human connectivity, that we will see, but also getting these rare earths and minerals coming out of the region.

There is a big issue on that I just want to . . . I was listening to US media lately and US media talks a lot about now rare earths and critical minerals, that we have fields in the United States. But to get a minefield or rare earth field up and running, it takes 10 to 15 years, we don't have that much time. We are in a critical race to try and-

Mike Doran:

It takes 10 to 15 years because of all the regulations, is that?

Efgan Nifti:

Not just regulations, to make it work basically. Even on oil fields, discovering it is one thing, but then making it operational takes at least five, 10 or 15 years basically. So those are green fields mostly, but we need brown fields that are active, that are usable, which are mostly located in that part of the world. So this is a very critical moment that we need to put our forces together to engage with the region.

Mike Doran:

Elon, before you mentioned, I can't remember what you. . . You said something disparaging about our European brothers.

Ilan Berman:

Oh, yeah.

Mike Doran:

I can't remember how you put it.

Ilan Berman:

Oh, let me count the ways. No.

Mike Doran:

But it seems to me what Efgan is talking about, there's a major strategic role for Europe-

Ilan Berman:

Yeah.

Mike Doran:

To play here.

Ilan Berman:

Right.

Mike Doran:

Which is, they don't have to commit troops, but they have to commit resources, investment. And in particular, if you think of something like Turkmen gas, and I don't know what would convince the Turkmen to want to sell their gas to Europe rather than China. And how willing they're going to be to defy Beijing and Moscow. But we can't get the Turkmen gas to Europe if there are no contracts, so as long as Europe is fantasizing that it's going to run a modern economy on wind and solar, then we don't have all of the elements in place that we need. We need the security guarantees for the routes. We need to push back against the Russians and the Iranians. And we need the investment. So there still is a role here for Europe to play if they would begin to see the world geo-strategically.

Ilan Berman:

Listen, I think there is, within limits. And the reason I say this is, and by the way, the disparaging comment was mostly intended to signal that there's this enduring European conceit that Europe is sort of a post-military, post-strategic environment. In Europe now, because of Ukraine, you are seeing the geopolitical center of gravity very unmistakably shift east, closer to the Balkan. Certainly Central and Eastern Europe, but certainly closer to the Balkans, closer to the Caspian. And these are regions that are now in play in ways that they weren't before.

Again, talking strictly from the American perspective, Europe has its own homework to do in order to be competitive in this environment, because you have countries like Poland, you have countries like the Czech Republic and the Baltic states that are really stepping up and they sort of understand the bear is at the door and they understand that this breeds urgency. I think you see less urgency in Western Europe. And that divide, I think has hampered, or at least slowed down European buy-in on all this. But you're absolutely right, I mean, the Europeans have a role to play.

Luke and I were talking before we sat on the panel, that great minds think alike and he and I, yesterday, both had columns about how Europe, despite all of its public messaging about the need to be steadfast and support Ukraine, the-

Ilan Berman:

The need to be steadfast and support Ukraine. The latest Reuters analysis looked at something like seven European countries that have actually increased-

Mike Doran:

Increased, yeah.

Ilan Berman:

. . . their imports of Russian energy over the last year. By the way, Portugal, and again, right Portugal is small, so the proportion is different, but

Mike Doran:

They make fantastic little tarts, though. Have you had those?

Ilan Berman:

Yes.

Mike Doran:

Those are really good.

Ilan Berman:

Yes, yes. But not what we're talking about.

Mike Doran:

Oh, no, sorry. Did I digress?

Ilan Berman:

No, no, you did.

Mike Doran:

Yeah.

Ilan Berman:

But Portugal, the amount of Russian energy that Portugal imported increased by, I think, 167 percent between 2024 and 2025. And so, I mean, to my mind, the surest way to stop this, the surest way to show European steadfastness is actually to turn off the Russian tap.

But you can't just tell them to turn off the Russian tap. You have to give them other alternatives. And that's where Caspian energy comes in. But only if it's independent, only if it's integrated independent.

Because if the Russians control it or the Chinese control it, it's not that valuable. So, I'm seeing these trend lines align in a really fortuitous way, one that makes Europe more competitive and America more competitive.

Mike Doran:

Fascinating. I want to give the audience a chance to ask some questions. So, let's have another round here starting with you, and just let me just ask you if there's anything that we didn't talk about that you think that we should have talked about, anything you wanted to react to from what your colleagues here said, or just anything else off the top of your mind?

Ilan Berman:

No, listen, I think-

Mike Doran:

And I'm sorry, pardon me. Also, we want policy recommendations from the United States.

Ilan Berman:

Oh, okay, okay. Policy recommendations. So, again, I think Luke said it best. Right? Show up. Show up, maintain interest. Right?

America has this, and we've historically had this very strange thing where we think that progress or democracy is a destination rather than a process. And, therefore something happens, there's a color revolution or there's a whatever, and we're like, "Oh, okay, we're done. We're going to go on. We're going to move on to other regions."

No, no, no. This needs to be nurtured. Right? So, after the cameras have stopped flashing, after all the pomp and circumstance is gone, now comes the real work, now comes the hard part. And we have to sort of keep the attention on to explain the benefits so that the attention from companies and from the government comes in.

I think in the context of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan has a very, I think, a very positive foreign policy agenda. Right? Concerns about Russia, they haven't gone away, but they've been away because the Russians are preoccupied.

Concerns about Iran are perennial, but the Iranians are, I don't know if you've noticed, but they're on the back foot. It doesn't mean they can't cause problems, but it's a little bit, the racking/stacking is a little bit differently.

Mike Doran:

They've had a bad year.

Ilan Berman:

They've had a bad year.

Mike Doran:

Yeah.

Ilan Berman:

They've had a bad year.

Mike Doran:

Poor guys.

Ilan Berman:

Right. And so, to me, my thinking about Azerbaijan is, keep doing what you're doing, but also take a broad view. Understand that from the American perspective, if you look at what the Trump administration wants, the Trump administration wants this corridor to succeed, and it also wants Armenia to succeed.

So, balancing that in your diplomacy, figuring out how to nurture Armenia, bring them along despite all the historical baggage, I think, becomes really important because you have to show that you're willing to play ball.

Mike Doran:

Okay. Efgan, how about you? Do you want to. . .?

Efgan Nifti:

I think one issue we need to also focus is the security item. And when we see this, let's say, we're talking about resources, connectivity, energy, gas, et cetera, flowing through this corridor. But how are you going to protect this critical infrastructure and new capability for that?

And last week we saw joint exercise between Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan in Uzbekistan in terms of increasing their compatibility in collaborating with each other. I think we need to support that engagement. The US has to have more relations in defense and security with the region.

That's one thing we've been kind of putting in the backstage, mostly focusing on just the counterterrorism, that kind of stuff. But I think increasing capabilities of this country is important.

And one thing also mentioned by a different look on the OTS in Gabala on the October 7 when the heads of states of the OTS countries came together, they also made a decision about creating OTS plus formats, which where we can have the US engagement with this OTS format. Where the level can be debated, but obviously, I think they are already made a signaling that they are ready to do that kind of engagement.

Mike Doran:

The key countries here, I mean these multilateral organizations and forums are great, but strategically, what we're really talking about here is Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan. Right? This is the core three?

Efgan Nifti:

Those are the main economic engines and main big players.

Mike Doran:

Among the three, do you think they all have the same picture in mind right now? Or is there friction between the Azerbaijani, I'm talking about the view of the region as a strategic unit and the questions of connectivity. Are Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan aligned with Azerbaijan?

Efgan Nifti:

I think there is a very good competition between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in terms of, that's a good competition in a way that they both try to do better, obviously, given their size and the population. Kazakhstan is the biggest economy in the region when you combine Caucasus and Central Asia.

But also, there are consultative meetings of these countries every year happening. Now, we'll see one in Uzbekistan when you will see, not C5, but C6 meeting, basically.

So, I think on the purpose and strategic goals, they are aligned and they have a lot of common interest in this regard. I remember when there was a conflict this summer, basically, Israel and Iran conflict, and all these air routes have to go through the middle corridor, basically.

And Uzbekistan, for many years, were trying to reach to the Indian Ocean through Afghanistan and Pakistan, which they also realized that it's not something they can achieve quite soon. And they also started making more strides towards connecting through the Trans-Caspian, as well.

So I think that those three capitals are pulling factors. They are the important partners that US has to work, and I think they can also bring the others on the table, as well.

Mike Doran:

Am I right, you emphasize security. When I think of security for this route, I think it begins and ends with the Turks. Here's how I think about it, so I'm going to tell you how I think and you tell me if I got it right, or if you think my concept needs to be amended.

The real muscle in the end, because we're talking about keeping the Russians and the Iranians at bay, that's Turkish power. But the Turks themselves are going to be reluctant to play the full role unless they're backstopped by the United States and NATO and Europe. Is that the right way to think about it, or am I. . .?

Efgan Nifti:

We should encourage Turkey in that.

Mike Doran:

We should?

Efgan Nifti:

Encourage Turkey in that engagement. Turkey has already been engaged with the region. And it's sharing the educational support and there is also basically military education. A lot of cadets from this region goes to Ankara and gets education.

And also it increased their interoperability with the NATO standards, as well. So, Turkey is a NATO country and has a lot of immense second-biggest power in NATO, and it brings a lot on the table.

And I think that the countries in the region, certainly Georgia, as well, have been long time engaging with Turkey in terms of increasing their security. And I think the US should be supporting that.

Mike Doran:

I don't want to diminish the role of Azerbaijan in all this because Azerbaijan has done an amazing job of building its own military to a NATO standard by working with the Turks and the Israelis and so on.

Efgan Nifti:

Yes.

Mike Doran:

But Azerbaijan stands on the shoulders of Turkey, and the Turks need the Americans. That's how I see it.

Efgan Nifti:

And also the Central Asians are looking to that example, yeah, in terms of replicating what they can do in that regard. Yeah.

Mike Doran:

Fascinating. Luke, you want to bring us home?

Luke Coffey:

Yeah, sure. So, three ideas really fast. The first one is to piggyback on what was said about Turkmengaz. I think that President Trump should use his diplomatic momentum in the region to try again, or should pushing for a trans-Caspian gas pipeline.

We can start at a low level here. We can start with just an interconnector connecting the two closest Turkmen and Azerbaijani gas fields. Just as a proof of concept, just as a confidence building measure and to test the waters, so to speak, on how Moscow and Tehran will react.

But the reason why the timing is right now is because Europe does need an alternative. Although they won't admit it publicly, I suspect the Turkmens would like to diversify their markets. And right now, Russian and Iranian influence in the region is on the wane because they're distracted with other things.

And in the past, they were the two Caspian countries that were against this idea. So let's get creative and let's just have a conversation about this, which we haven't had.

The second thing is piggybacking on security. For the United States, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are the two natural partners in this field. We should be working with them, in my opinion, on maritime domain awareness, situational awareness in the region.

Especially because we talk a lot about the middle corridor and the transit routes, but there is a big inland body of water there called the Caspian that we need to make sure is secure and stable for these goods to pass through.

For Kazakhstan, this just means more political will. For Azerbaijan, this means revoking the ridiculous 907 measure that prevents the US from cooperating with Azerbaijan on a military-to-military basis, and providing other defense items. That is a relic. That was unnecessary from the beginning. And certainly right now it seems like a relic from the past and it's time that that's formally discarded with.

And then the final point, the final recommendation is about how we engage with the region, especially Central Asia. We need to think long-term. We need to build long-term relations.

I know President Trump is a transactional type of president, and I know that for many of the leaders in the region, it's tempting to have that transactional relationship with the United States. The both sides need to move beyond that and build an enduring relationship.

We saw what happened with the transactional relationships immediately after 9/11. We were closing down military bases with a short notice in Central Asia. We had a breakdown in relations with certain countries over certain issues because that transaction ended.

I, myself, in 2005, I was dispatched actually from Afghanistan to Karshi-Khanabad in Uzbekistan to help close down a part of that US space that we were using there in Uzbekistan. So I saw firsthand what it means when that transaction can just end. And we need to think long-term.

And as we do, we need to think about balancing. We need to help the countries of Central Asia balance their relations. If we go in there and say it's us, or it's them, them being the Chinese, the Russians, whatever, it's going to be them. I mean, just look at a map.

But if we go in there and we're smart and sophisticated and nuanced, and we help them do this and we help them do that, and then they help us and we help them balance their engagement, then we can go a long ways.

And I would say, finally, to sum up, on August 8th, the United States may not be a Eurasian country, but on August 8th, we became a Eurasian actor. And if we play our cards right, we can become a Eurasian power. And it's in our interests and the interests of our allies that we do so.

Mike Doran:

Okay, I lost track of time. Can somebody help me out? Does the next panel start at 11:00? Because we're going to need a little bit of a break, or does it-

Luke Coffey:

It started at 10:30.

Mike Doran:

No, no, no. Or do we end at 11:00? What's the. . .?

Mike Doran:

It begins at 11:00? So we have four minutes for questions. Make them really laser-like.

Kamran Bokhari:

Thank you so much. I just want to drop altitude a bit,

Mike Doran:

We have a microphone.

Kamran Bokhari:

Kamran Bokhari, New Lines Institute. I just want to drop altitude a bit. Iran is changing. What does that do?

I mean, we don't know what Iran looks like on the other side, I'm talking about internally. And so what does, and this is for you, Ilan, what does an Iran in chaos or in transition do to this whole project in the South Caucasus?

And, likewise, China is already on the other side Aghan, of the Caspian Sea. We're still on this side. So, by the time we get there, what does that look like?

Luke, is Russia, does it even have the capacity? Because look, they didn't lose the South Caucasus after Ukraine, it was before Ukraine. So, does it even have the ability to influence? And if so, to what extent? Thanks.

Mike Doran:

Okay, let's make it really quick.

Ilan Berman:

Yeah, really quick. So, fodder for a longer conversation, but I think Iran is an actor in the South Caucasus depends on what kind of Iran we're going to see. Right? And you should, if you're working the Iran file, be figuring out what Iranian evolution looks like.

And I would argue, and you and I have had this sort of conversation offline, but I would argue there's three of the most likely scenarios. Right? Iran is post-Mao China, where you have a technocratic transition that brings to power a cadre of technocrats that does banking better, that does resource management better. And as a result, starts fraying the opposition.

Iran as Venezuela, where you have a partial collapse scenario where the government remains coherent and cohesive, but they lose control of their borders and they're more reliant on Russia and China.

Or Iran as post-Soviet Russia. Right? Where the deep state, like a true deep state asserts itself in the form of the IRGC taking over key institutions of government. Right? Under each of these scenarios, I think the engagement with the South Caucasus is a little bit different.

I think under the last scenario, which is, I would argue, the most likely, you see a northern strategy on the part of the IRGC that begins to look at the Caspian not like a sea, but like a lake, a zone of influence, a zone of control. That's something that could complicate trade and it could complicate connectivity.

Under the other scenarios, particularly the partial collapse scenario, I think they're going to be too busy.

Mike Doran:

Efgan?

Efgan Nifti:

I think China question is a very big question. It takes perhaps another big conversation on China. But I think what is interesting to understand, maybe it's a disadvantage for us in that China has a party government, and on the top level when they make agreements, they have like eight strategic partnership agreements with the countries of the region. And they just follow through the list going through all the institutions.

For us to do that, American machine is not acting that way. That's one issue. Even if we make big political statements, it doesn't get reflected on all the institutions. But also, we certainly don't tell the private sector what to do.

But I want to believe in the resilience and innovation capacity that we have. And I think the amount of calls and requests as an institution received lately from the US banks, investment firms, et cetera, it tells me that there is a conversation going on about this.

And just recently, I heard Morgan Stanley announced $1.5 trillion in investing rare earths minerals, et cetera. Maybe some of them also can go to this region. Again, what I'm trying to say is that maybe there's a question that we are too late on this.

Or, we maybe can catch up with the innovative and resilient structures that we can implement. And I think one big asset we have on that, one big ally we have on that, the region does not want to replace one master with another one. So, in that perspective, I think we have a chance.

Mike Doran:

Luke, you get 27 seconds to. . .

Luke Coffey:

Okay, on Russia. Russia's influence is waning, but that doesn't mean they don't have influence. They certainly do. And I would say in this period of time, as Russian influence wanes, their ability to disrupt stays the same, or in some cases increases.

We shouldn't forget that Armenia is a country that is home to about 5,000 Russian troops, where the Russians control Armenian airspace, manage Armenian airspace in the same way they manage the airspace of the Russian Federation, in where Russian FSB border guards control and monitor the border of Armenia's state border with Turkey and Iran, including a key crossing point between Armenia and Iran that runs right through the middle of what will be the Trump route for international peace and prosperity.

So, there are quite a few cards. We talk about who has the cards in Washington. Russia still has some cards and we have to be aware of this.

Mike Doran:

Okay, well, thank you. We now have 10 minutes for you to recharge your coffee, actually nine, really. But before you do that, please join me in thanking our panel for a very interesting day.

Joel Scanlon:

Good morning, everyone. I'm Joel Scanlon, Executive Vice-President here at Hudson, and it's my pleasure to introduce our keynote speaker, Senator Steve Daines, serving the people of the great state of Montana and, of course, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Earlier this year, the Senator traveled to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, met with Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Aliyev. His discussions helped lay the groundwork for President Trump's shepherding of an historic peace deal between the two nations.

That deal not only undermined Russia's longtime influence in a region of great geopolitical significance, but also offers a path to fully realize the region's economic and strategic importance for critical minerals, energy reserves, trade and investment as a connection between Central Asia and Europe.

Senator Daines brings 28 years of successful global private sector experience to Washington, where he is now focused on unleashing American energy, strengthening our national security, deepening our relationships with partners and allies around the world.

Senator, congratulations on your role in this historic agreement. It's an honor to have you with us today.

Mike Doran:

Thanks a lot.

Joel Scanlon:

Thank you.

Mike Doran:

I'm looking over at the hard men who run your schedule. How long do we have this senator for?

Staff:

5, 10 minutes.

Mike Doran:

5, 10 minutes? Okay. We'll run right to the audience, but I'm going to use the prerogative of the chair here to ask you a question.

Senator Daines:

Sure.

Mike Doran:

After you mentioned that it's surprising for somebody from Montana to take an interest in this part of the world, I asked Grok here, what's the point in the United States that's furthest from the South Caucasus? And I wanted it to say Montana. It did. It almost broke Grok, it did lots of complex mathematical calculations, and then it said Key West, Florida.

Senator Daines:

Oh, is that right? Is that right?

Mike Doran:

But it's pretty far away, Montana.

Senator Daines:

Yeah.

Mike Doran:

On a serious note, there's a lot of, for lack of a better word, isolationism in our world today. So, it's striking that both you and President Trump have seen the importance of this part of the world and are making the case for it.

How do you make the case to your constituents back in Montana that this matters to their security? Because it is very far away.

Senator Daines:

It is, and it's important because last time I checked, I'm not elected by anybody in this room or anybody here in Washington. It's the people in Montana. It is.

And I'm a fifth generation Montana. I had a great-great-grandmother who homesteaded. She came from Norway, in Northern Montana. And then, of course, we've been discovered, the show Yellowstone, so we all know about Montana now. And Governor Dutton sends his regards, by the way, for Yellowstone watchers.

But, I think you got to step back, and I spent most of my career in the private sector in global businesses, whether it's Procter, & Gamble, then the cloud computing business. We took a company public over 12 years and sold it to Oracle, and I ran Asia Pacific. But here's the point.

95 percent of the world's consumers live outside the United States. So as you think about our number one economic driver is agriculture. So there's a very important message here of importance of developing global markets here for access for exports.

But you turn that right back around in terms of oil and gas and critical minerals. Given the increasingly difficulties we're having with China, we've got to have complementary supply chains here with our trusted friends and develop more trusted friends, moving friends from the friends category to trusted friends.

And the world is in Central Asia, in the South Caucasus, they're yearning to be trusted friends to the United States. As I mentioned, the currency we have in the world that is the strongest currency, that the Chinese don't have, the Russians don't have in is trust.

And building out these relationships is very important for the future of the Ag industry in a place like Montana. It also is for our national security.

Mike Doran:

And do you find that the electorate is receptive to these arguments?

Senator Daines:

I do. I mean, you think about what we don't want to be seeing is any protracted conflicts in the United States oversees. What do we do? We get to fill the void. I mean, as I mentioned earlier, if you look at, after I did my trip through Central Asia, guess who shows up in Astana? It meets with all five central Asian presidents, Xi Jinping.

So we have this opportunity, whether it's in Central Asia, it's in the Caucasus, it's also in the Gulf States, is the vacuum will be filled either with the United States pushing forward, and aggressively pushing forward here, because the world, these countries want this friendship and partnership with the United States.

Every one of these presidents, all five central Asian presidents, of course, President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashiyan, they all have great respect and appreciate President Trump. They want a close relationship with us.

Because, I think, it was Colin Powell that said, once upon a time, "The United States has never asked for any land in its history. We've been involved in wars, we've always been pushing back against tyranny. The only land we've ever asked for is to bury our own dead."

That's the reputation, the currency we have around the world. And that's why we have this great opportunity to continue to promote our values through our friendships and our trust.

Mike Doran:

Okay. Let's open it up to the audience here.

Ken Mariyasu:

Hello, Ken Moriyasu from Nikkei Asia, a Japanese newspaper. Senator, could you tell us what do you think President Trump's aim for engaging in this peace process was? A shallow reading would be that he wants a Nobel Peace prize, but I think it's much more strategic than that.

What do you think his personal involvement in this peace process was aimed at?

Senator Daines:

Yeah, yeah. Well, I think the President and Secretary Rubio and Steve Wittkopf and his team understand the strategic importance of what this means. Of course, Azerbaijan is the only country in the world that borders Russia and Iran, just for starters, oh, by the way.

And either the Iranians and the Russians will continue to exert their influence, as I mentioned in my remarks, through coercion and turmoil and so forth. They want to see conflicts going on.

President Trump sincerely is a man of peace. He wants to reduce the temperature, bring peace to some of these parts of the world. And then this is an example of one of them.

But I think the economic importance, too, can't be missed of what Central Asia can't be unlocked and uncorked unless the Caucuses, that middle corridor is opened up. Is, you know, one of the easiest ways to describe the importance of the Caucuses is you take your FlightAware app and look at where the planes fly.

When I took my flight to Astana, you have to fly in the south edge of the Black Sea because of Vladimir Putin. You fly along there. And then you shoot the gap there through the Caucuses on your way to the global air travel. That's a picture of the importance of that corridor.

And then it also has implications as you think about Turkey, and as Armenia is now looking at certainly continuing talks with Turkey. But these are truly resetting, globally here in terms of relationships for the world. And this momentum, the President is created here by getting that peace deal, that you think about, what was President Trump's first visit? Other than, of course, when the Pope passed, he went to the funeral.

But his, really, his first state visit was to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE signing trillion dollar kinds of agreements here. And that momentum is actually in keeping the Chinese and the Russians are kind of pushed out of parts of the Middle East. And this all ties together on this complex geopolitical puzzle.

Anatoly Motkin:

Thank you. Hi, my name is Anatoly Motkin. I'm President of Strategeast, leading American institution developing digital infrastructure in Caucasus, Central Asia, Ukraine, and Moldova.

So, you mentioned the President's Trump visit to the Gulf and the American tech leaders joined him there. An American technological presence in Gulf increased significantly.

When we're talking about Central Asia and Caucasus, we're talking about physical infrastructure, we're talking about commodities in goods. But I think the Chinese presence there, technological presence, could significantly limit ability of United States to operate there in the future years.

So, don't you think that we need to invest the same efforts in this region to have our bigger presence as a technological superpower? Thanks.

Senator Daines:

Yes. I will take you with me on the road. You can keep saying that. I completely agree.

And, again, it's almost embarrassing that I was the first US Senator in Turkmenistan, Tajikistan in 13 years. It's just been neglect. And these countries, in fact, I'll tell kind of a fun story here about Uzbekistan.

So I had dinner with the Uzbek ambassador after I came back from one of the visits. And I said, "How are things going?" He says, "I know you have seven grandchildren." We exchange pictures of grandchildren.

He said, "I just had my first grandson in Tashkent." I said, "Oh, congratulations." He said, "Yes." I said, "Have you seen him, yet?" He says, "No." I said, "Why not?" He says, "My president will not allow me to go back and see my grandson until President Trump calls my president."

That's a pretty easy ask, right? I mean, and so we got that to happen. But I think it just illustrates right now, this opportunity we have.

And of course, when I think about when President Trump wakes up every morning, we were with him on Tuesday at the Rose Garden lunch. We had some great discussions. He brought us in the Oval Office for an hour, Senator Republicans just to chat.

But, of course, his to-do list is pretty significant. You're trying to figure out right now what's going on in Gaza and Syria and Ukraine.

Senator Daines:

Gaza and Syria? Ukraine? Yet in the midst of all these major conflicts here, these other peace agreements, again, the Armenia and Azerbaijan deal done, I think it's just probably a matter of just capacity and time, but a little bit can go a long ways.

We're fully on the same page here. I completely agree with you is that it's a vacuum, and either we're going to fill it or the Chinese are going to fill it. I say that as somebody who's led more congressional visits to China than anybody else in the US Senate. I'll be leading my seventh visit there in late March and early April.

I need to get more senators to understand the innovation ecosystem that exists in China, the supply chain argument of China. That's a 1990s argument. As I told Mike Pompeo when he was Secretary of State, says, "Mike, the only thing more dangerous than a US senator who's never been to China is one who was there five years ago."

Mike Doran:

One last question. Efkan, you have the honor.

Efgan Nifti:

Oh, thank you so much. Thank you, Senator. Great comments, and thank you, Mike. You mentioned eloquently about your visit to Kazakhstan, which was followed by Xi visiting the region.

We all know that no US president have ever been to this region. In coming weeks we'll have central Asian leaders and Azerbaijan leader meeting in Uzbekistan, consultative conversation about what they do together.

Do you imagine in coming years, months that we'll see US presidents also present in the region? This was one of the arguments, but . . .

Mike Doran:

You see what happened here. You told this story about the Uzbek ambassador and his son, and then Efkan saying, thinking now, "This is the route to get the president to the region."

Efgan Nifti:

Yeah. That is the route. Actually, I took the same flight maybe from Germany to Astana going through all the way to Azerbaijan.

Mike Doran:

Right.

Efgan Nifti:

Through Azerbaijan.

Senator Daines:

I was on Astana Air, so I . . .

Efgan Nifti:

Yeah.

Senator Daines:

It was a great airline, by the way, flying those great Boeing Dreamliners there. It's wonderful.

Efgan Nifti:

Beautiful. Yes.

Senator Daines:

Yeah, the C5 is going to come up here in Washington is a wonderful moment here. We're doing all we can to make sure that is a very consequential meeting for those leaders with the president here on our soil.

I am continuing to make the pitch to get the president or the vice presidents. Let's just . . . We started off by breaking a 13-year drought where there's a senator in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan and multi-year drought, frankly, for many of the Stans, the North.

The answer is yes. I think that's very important. I think the president and the Secretary Rubio are continuing to see the very strategic important role that the Stans play as it relates to the bigger puzzle here of the world in China and Russia and so forth.

My wife has with me in all five of these visits to the Stans. We were just struck . . . I saw this. Now, she could not have accompany me to Azerbaijan or Armenia, but I was struck by when you walk around you see the young people, they're pushing strollers, birth rates.

This is a huge challenge certainly for the United States and Europe is declining birth rates, but you're seeing where the future's going to be here demographically. The family values, the alignment there of just . . . It's what Charlie Kirk talked about, get married, have children, pursue joy in the eternal.

We've got a lot of commonality here with these countries in the Stans with what we believe as Americans, and we need to continue to foster that. It's not the same values that you see from China and from Russia.

Mike Doran:

You see in that part of the world, it's basically everybody has aspirations they're pursuing. There's a lot of good news stories going on throughout that region.

Senator Daines:

There really are. You think about . . . Our biggest challenge we have in the United States as it relates to development of our natural resources, it's ourselves. We can't permit our natural resources fast enough to meet the demands going forward.

Frankly, even energy's a challenge for us, or even nuclear SMRs and nukes and nuclear reactions and so forth. We're going to have to have a much complementary strategy here, developing supply chains with trusted friends.

I've got some ideas. How about Azerbaijan, Armenia, the C5m, just for starters, right? Who want to come our way. I think it's important. As you see what the Chinese have done here of putting a stranglehold on magnets and critical minerals, you all can actually move faster than we can, and we need to be working this in partnership.

Mike Doran:

All right, well, Senator Daines, thank you so much for taking the time here, and thank you so much for your leadership on this issue. It's really so important, and I can't thank you enough.

Senator Daines:

Thank you.

Mike Doran:

Please join me in thanking Senator Daines.

Keynote: Senator Steve Daines

I was asked the question this morning around why would a senator from Montana be involved in helping broker a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia? I was recently over in China. In fact, it was part of the China Forum in March. And as part of my global business background, I lived in China for six years with Procter & Gamble, launching businesses that are back in the ‘90s. We had two of our four children were born in Hong Kong.

And I sat down with the premier. The premier, his first remarks to me, he says, “The first CODEL of the US Senate to China was led by Mike Mansfield,” a senator from Montana. And then, of course, Max Baucus was the US ambassador to China under Obama. And then here, this other Montana guy shows up, myself. He said, “You Montanans are icebreakers.” And I chuckled and I said, “Well, there’s something we have in Montana is a lot of ice, so maybe that’s what gives us the expertise perhaps.”

But I want to thank the Hudson Institute, certainly for inviting me here today. And I think about the Hudson Institute, now you’re as old as I am, by the way. I looked at the date you were founded, it was a year before I was born. It has really stood at the forefront of so many policy battles here in Washington. Grateful for the work that you do. You are a resource to members as well as staff on the Hill, and also the media and other thought leaders here around Washington DC.

So as we turn our attention to foreign policy today, it is really almost a surreal time to address you all. I just made a swing through the Gulf States here a few weeks ago into Qatar as well as UAE. There’s an old saying that one day is as 1,000 years and 1,000 years as is one day. That saying may indeed describe Washington well in the world with President Donald Trump at the helm. As I’ve said since President Trump was elected and inaugurated, said every hour in this city feels like another new day.

Just look at the accomplishments so far in the world stage. Peace agreements between Cambodia and Thailand, and sorting out a bit of a dispute there between India and Pakistan. Got Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and of course the monumental achievement over the past few weeks of getting the living Israeli hostages out of Gaza. I was standing on the Gaza border here about six weeks ago, the border with Egypt, there at the Kerem Shalom humanitarian aid logistics point, seeing that firsthand with F-16s flying overhead and hearing active bombing runs. And it was wonderful to see those hostages, of which some of us, including myself, have met with those hostage families. And I can’t imagine, as a father of four ourselves and seven grandchildren, having a loved one held hostage and captive by Hamas. What a moment of joy for those families to see that, to see that come to fruition.

But what I want to focus on today is an agreement that many didn’t see coming, and that’s the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In fact, it caught many of the Beltway by surprise. Punchbowl was talking about it in their podcast, literally the morning it was signed, and they were in complete shock. They went so far to say that the CODELs that we take in Congress are a joke, and they just couldn’t believe we would lay the groundwork for a major peace agreement on the CODEL I took to the region.

It was a solo CODEL I took, and this followed visits I had been taking to Central Asia. I visited each of the five central Asian countries before this, meeting with the presidents in each of those countries, meeting with three of them before the election of last year, and two of them, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, following the election.

It’s always great to prove the cynical Beltway media wrong. So let me tell you how it happened and then focus on the future of American involvement in the South Caucasus and the opportunities the region holds.

To understand the magnitude of the recent Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement, we must first briefly look to the historical context of the conflict. Two sides have been locked in a state of conflict since the late ‘80s. Multiple wars, very little progress on reconciliation. Think about, stepping back, the big picture. A Shiite Muslim nation, a Christian nation, a conflict between the two sides lasting from 1988 to 1994, and then nine additional conflicts from 2008 to 2023. And of course, stepping back on even the bigger picture of what happened in World War I, 1915 with the Armenian Genocide that occurred there with the Ottomans. The Soviet Union, and subsequently, Russia typically acted as the regional power broker and purposefully prolonged the conflict to maintain their control and their influence over the region by ensuring that both countries could not achieve their own goals and were instead stuck in a cycle of perpetual violence.

Every president since HW Bush pursued their own peace initiatives, trying to find resolution to the issue, but all came up short. Some did not properly resource or prioritize the talks, while others simply could not get the two sides to see eye to eye.

And that brings us to this year, when the Trump administration prioritized finding peace in the South Caucasus, with members of his team engaging both sides of the conflict since the beginning of the year. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had diverted Putin’s attention and pulled Russian resources further west ,and thereby provided an opening for greater American involvement and influence. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan shed the yoke of Russian coercion and turns toward an independent future in a unique partnership with the United States.

And I must tell you that Steve Witkoff’s team was immediately on the ground, tackling the thorniest issues of this deal head on. Previous negotiation efforts tried to separate out individual issues, creating this incredibly complex diplomatic network and unintentionally downplaying the complexities of the region.

This administration tackled the negotiations with a holistic approach. If there’s ever such a thing as the art of the deal, we started to see it unfold here, recognizing that each issue is connected to the other and that their resolutions are mutually reinforcing, not exclusive. American negotiators came up with the innovative concept of the Trump route, of course the Trump route for international peace and prosperity, or TRIPP as it’s referred to, that would connect Azerbaijan to its Exclave in the Nakhchivan while creating a new trade route. Of course, on the edge there, the Iranian border that Armenia and Azerbaijan and other regional states would benefit from. The connection between the two had long been the trickiest aspect of the peace talks, and the TRIPP was a completely new way of reframing a solution that was actually amenable to both sides.

So I traveled to the region in May of this year. I was the first US Senator to step foot in Azerbaijan, other than for the COP conference that had been in Baku earlier, in seven years. So step in the middle of these negotiations that were occurring, brokered by the Trump administration and Steve Witkoff and his team. At the time, peace was certainly not guaranteed, negotiations still fragile. Decades of conflict had taken a toll on trust, trust between the two countries. And while the talks were progressing, they were not yet quite complete.

Well, in the region, I met with both President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan. I traveled with members of my team. I was a solo trip as a senator. I had embassy Officials, as well as some of the administration’s staff from State Department as well as some of Steve Witkoff’s key players. And our meetings offered an opportunity to present a fresh perspective on the negotiations, a perspective both leaders seemed eager to hear. They both sincerely wanted to resolve this conflict permanently. They both saw the opportunities the future could hold and that the violence had to end before they could pursue these opportunities. We were able to discuss some practical solutions to intractable problems that plagued the peace talks for decades prior.

I remember following a very good meeting in Baku with the president. He took me out to his beautiful balcony there overlooking the Caspian Sea. And just the two of us got to have a conversation about building trust. And think about one of the most important currencies that we have, that’s unique to the United States, that Russia can’t bring to the table, that China can’t bring to the table, that the Iranians can’t bring to the table, that many can’t bring to the table, is the currency of trust that the United States offers. And I will tell you, it was the trust in the president of the United States, in President Trump. That was a very important part of this puzzle we had to unpack here to bring the peace agreement together.

I remember when then I was headed to Armenia and Prime Minister Pashinyan was not able to meet in Yerevan, the capitol. So he says, “We must meet. Is there any way you can get up to Gyumri? Which is about a two-hour drive to the north and to the west of Yerevan, up close to the Turkish and Georgia border. So I says, “Of course we’ll make that drive.” And thanks to the US Air Force giving us a quick lift between some of these cities and then our State Department staff getting on the two-hour ride up to Gyumri.

We met at the Radisson Hotel there, Gyumri, with the prime minister because that’s where he was for that day with some important meetings. I checked on Expedia, it’s 82 bucks a night here tonight. I will just tell you, this isn’t the King David Hotel in Jerusalem. It was a rather modest place to have this meeting.

And I remember as we were having the discussion, there was some sticking points about sovereignty and protecting the sovereignty of Armenia as it relates to this root that was going across Armenian soil to connect Azerbaijan to its exclave. And I spent most of my career again in the private sector and trying to think about how do you work this out? It had some kind of commercial, almost like real estate pieces to it.

And I remember I took out a piece of paper. It was there with the pen, the paper they always put in a meeting like that. And I drew a three-layer cake. I said, “This is like a three-layer cake.” I says, “The base layer here, this cake is Armenian soil and sovereignty.” That was a very important issue for the Armenians. But that doesn’t change with this agreement. That on top of it, we build the operating processes and the tenants to this commercial project we’re going to build here, but you own the soil and we’re going to have tenants who are going to be building out this three-layer cake as relates to the commercial structure in the TRIPP. And he kept referring back to that layered cake illustration as key here to think of just correcting a sticking point here to make sure that we respected the Armenian sovereignty of this root.

Both Prime Minister Pashinyan, as well as President Aliyev have demonstrated tremendous courage and fortitude throughout this process and really have put their reputations and their legacies on the line in pursuit of peace. Peace never comes easy. Their courage, combined with President Trump and his team’s creative diplomacy and problem-solving have brought us to where we stand today.

On that same trip, I also traveled to the third nation of the South Caucasus, and that was Georgia. And while in Tbilisi, I met with members of both the ruling Georgia Dream Party as well as the opposition. The message I delivered to them was that any antagonism between our countries could end tomorrow. That visit provided a remarkable split screen between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who’ve chosen to work with the United States to building multilateral framework that will propel their nations into the future. I met with Howard Lutnick on Monday afternoon and they’re talking about chip deals and so forth with Armenia.

While Georgia has unfortunately moved in the wrong direction in recent years. The United States stands ready to work with Georgia, provide a better future for their people. Both leaders were receptive to my message, but there have since been some negative developments. The Trump administration is right to push Georgia to behave responsibly, but I would continue to stress to Georgia that our relations need to not continue down the track they are on at the moment.

There is no reason Georgia cannot be a part of the newly emerging regional partnership and benefit the same as its very important neighbors. All they need to do is reach out and grasp the outstretched hand of the United States and redouble their commitment to a pluralistic democratic governance system. They play a strategic role in this opening up of the corridor, certainly as the one country of the caucuses that has direct access on the Black Sea.

Well, that brings us to August 8, when both Aliyev and Pashinyan traveled to Washington to sign an agreement and joint declaration on peace in the South Caucuses. I was in attendance on that momentous day. It takes a lot to get this Montana boy to leave Montana in August and come back here, but this was an important moment. I was very glad to be there.

The agreement is not the end of the road for this process, but it really does provide a road map going forward for the future. It outlines the principles of peace, commitments both sides have made, and the US’ role as the deals guarantor. That was a very important part of these discussions with the president and the prime minister. It was President Trump is the guarantor of this deal, that accountability that the United States offers here to secure and protect this deal going forward.

And now that the deal has been signed, the US can get to work with our partners on implementation. I was struck by a moment after this historic August 8 signing there in the East Wing of the White House. It was a small gathering. It reminds me kind of like, you know there’s big weddings and there’s smaller weddings? This was a smaller, more intimate gathering. Marco was there, Suzy was there, and of course the leaders from and diplomats from Armenia and Azerbaijan.

But as we were walking out of the White House, we were there kind of coming across the East Wing. If you’ve been in the White House lately, you’ve seen, there’s a painting of the photograph that was taken when President Trump was nearly assassinated in Butler, Pennsylvania, where he got that iconic fist in the air with the Secret Service agents protecting him. And there’s a big painting, it’s a very large painting. It’s on the wall just down the hallway from actually Ronald Reagan’s painting.

And I’m walking out with the two leaders and they saw the painting. And they both went to the painting and stood there. And of course, the clicks are happening as they’re seeing these two leaders standing in front of the painting of President Trump. Well, I had my phone there too, and I wasn’t going to miss this moment, so I discreetly took a quick picture of my iPhone there. And I’ll tell you, I sent that to Charlie Kirk. This was August 8. And said, “Charlie, look at this. A peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” And he responded back to me with all caps, “PHENOMENAL.” And my last text to Charlie, was the last text I ever sent to Charlie, was simply, “Matthew 5:9.” That Prime Minister Pashinyan had quoted in that peace agreement remarks that says, “Blessed are the peacemakers.” That was my last text to Charlie Kirk.

Unsurprisingly, the Trump administration is moving quickly. They’ve already provided $145 million in funding for development in Armenia and more will come as needed. The United States is making hard dollar, concrete investments in regional peace that will benefit all of our countries.

The economic potential as a result of this deal is very significant. Armenia and Azerbaijan have considerable resource wealth in their own rights. Baku is one of the world’s most important gas and oil exporters, with infrastructure carrying their product all the way across Turkey to Europe. While Armenia has major copper, zinc, antimony, and other critical mineral deposits.

Azerbaijan has also been an integral partner to Israel. As we know, they’re, in fact, the leading supplier of oil to Israel. I think that’s one of the underreported facts and underappreciated facts of this important strategic relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel. 20 million Azeris living in Iran, very important part of the overall intel picture and strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Israel.

Armenia’s Crossroad of Peace initiative is also promising. It’s seeking to make major infrastructure investments to better connect the Caucasus, Middle East, and Central Asia to Western markets. Further to the east, Central Asia’s riches for the first time have hope because the central corridor’s starting to open up. I know when I meet with the ambassadors from some of the central Asian countries, they describe their world as living in a submarine submerged in Russia, China, Iran, Afghanistan. Of course, this middle corridor is so important, providing an unimpeded path to travel West, allowing American and European firms to make longer-term investments with the certainty of long-term transport certainty.

Central Asia’s energy, mineral, ag wealth can help strengthen the fragile supply chains to the West, offering new sources for the building blocks of national power and economic growth. These resources can also support the nations they pass through and provide steady revenues for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Today’s environment offers a new opportunity to complete the last 20 miles of the long theorized Trans-Caspian interconnector pipeline, bringing Turkmenistan’s fourth-largest reserves of natural gas in the world, bringing that gas West through existing pipeline infrastructure, and significantly reduce or potentially end Europe’s reliance on Russian gas.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement is a diplomatic breakthrough, an instance of truly mutually beneficial peacemaking. Through the innovative problem-solving of all the leaders who are involved in this deal, courageous commitment to peace on behalf of Azerbaijan and Armenia, and dogged determination, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United States are truly walking and working towards a new, more prosperous and importantly more secure future.

Remember, decades ago, Jimmy Carter’s national security advisor, Brzezinski dreamed of uncorking the riches of the Caspian Basin, the infamous wine bottle and cork quote from Brzezinski. This deal gets us one step closer to that goal. And all it took was determined president and a team of talented diplomats to accomplish the goal.

Gone are the days of endless negotiations, empty promises. American diplomacy is back under the leadership of President Trump and Secretary Rubio. I look forward to continuing to work towards finalizing this peace agreement and bringing truly that bright future to fruition. Thank you.

Panel 2: The Future of US-Azerbaijan Relations Begins

Mike Doran:

Okay, well, it is my honor to end this proceeding with a conversation with Ambassador Ibrahim. He has had a . . . For a man, especially of your young age, a very distinguished career.

After serving at NATO, you were ambassador to . . . We're saying Turkia now. I keep saying Turkey. I can't get myself to say Turkia.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Yes.

Mike Doran:

Oh, forgive me.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Yes.

Mike Doran:

You probably say Turkey too sometimes in your sleep. Yeah. You were there for the second Karabakh war in which the Turkish Azerbaijani relationship was so crucial, and now you're here in Washington for this historic change.

You're having a great run. Okay, you don't want to take credit, but congratulations. Anyway, I give you congratulations.

Senator Daines:

Thank you.

Mike Doran:

Congratulations to your country, but also to you for playing these very important roles in these very, very important events. Let's just start by asking you to give us your sense of where things stand right now. What's been achieved? What remains to be? What remains to be achieved? We're at a crossroads, I think.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Thank you very much, Mike. It's great to be back to Hudson, having homegrown or having anything else, it's not for career diplomats. We just do our job. All the credit goes of course to our leaders who do all the heavy lifting.

Therefore, it's President Aliyev, Prime Minister Pashinyan, and of course President Trump. We should not forget that without the leadership it would've never happened.

Where we stand, it depends on what issues, it depends in what geography. It depends the level, depth, and breadth of the issues. In general, I would say we stand pretty strong in terms of the issues in the region. We stand pretty dynamic in terms of our bilateral relations with the United States.

In the region, as was mentioned, there is no shooting, there are no deaths every day. We are meeting basically every day Azerbaijanis, Armenians on different levels. Not only societies, not only NGOs, but also leaders in different parts of the world. There is not a single opportunity missed between them.

At the same time, I would say Georgia was mentioned here. We see the region very holistic. We believe that South Caucasus is, or the countries of South Caucasus . . . All together, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia should have full ownership together with our partners, together with allies to move things forward.

Mike Doran:

You say that the region is holistic. I know, just speaking personally, I first got drawn to Azerbaijan because of the increasing connections with the Middle East.

I think we're seeing in the world that the boundaries between Europe and Africa, Europe and the Middle East, Europe and the South Caucasus, Middle East and South Caucasus, Central Asia, it's all kind of blurring.

It used to be that the Middle East was its own subsystem of international relations, and there were pretty clear boundaries between Europe and Middle East, Middle East and South Caucasus. Of course, South Caucasus was its own subsystem.

Now we're seeing all of these lines blurring. Azerbaijan is mediating between the Turks and the Israelis in Syria. Who would've expected that? Azerbaijan is . . . Now owns a piece of the Israeli gas field. Azerbaijan is becoming a Middle Eastern power in a sense.

How do we understand this? Is there any way? Are there simple concepts that we can develop? Especially . . . I'm thinking about this when trying to talk to Americans about the connections, the interconnectivity, it's kind of baffling in a certain way, but really important to get your head around. Can you help us in any way?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

I'll try my best. Maybe I would not use the word blurry. I would use the word fuzzy. I will try to put logic into it since the developer of fuzzy logic is Azerbaijani, a great Azerbaijani. When we have logic, then we'll look into the facts, of course. Geography is a reality. It's a variable which is kind of changeable in a way, but not supposed to given the international law.

We are a country of South Caucasus if you look geographically, but then your question is Middle East, Central Asia, probably some others. How come why Azerbaijan has all these issues? Where we find straight logic, where we find fuzzy logic.

I think it's mostly fuzzy in a way that when you are small in terms of your size, when you are geographically somewhere, but you can do things, and you can punch way above your weight.

In terms of being Middle Eastern, it's not only about Azerbaijan having fraternal relations with Turkia, which you mentioned, or having very strong cooperation and partnership with the state of Israel, which allows us to bring sides together. It's not only Azerbaijan having cultural, linguistic, and other ties with countries of San Central Asia, which makes Azerbaijan also central Asian country.

It's not only Azerbaijan being European given the history, given the geography, given actually part of our culture. It's also what you can do. Not only bringing sites together, but also what is your potential.

People were speaking here about the energy projects, right? We cannot take all these energy projects just purely as energy projects. What this energy projects brought . . . I liked how Senator Daines put it, what is the biggest currency for the United States? Trust, right?

This project, this global project, actually build trust between Azerbaijan and its partners, specifically United States of America. The energy projects, which we had through Georgia, Turkia, further to Europe, brought trust between European countries and Azerbaijan. Energy projects with state of Israel also brought more trust.

The middle quarter we're working on with central Asian countries, and this very famous, infamous, or whatever mentioning of late Brzezinski uncorking the potential of the Capsian Sea, also brings trust.

Actually for Azerbaijan also I think our biggest currency is trust. It's not oil, it's not gas, it's not our geography. It's the fact that people, countries, and regions trust us. That's why with fuzzy logic or straight logic we can play in different chess boards and we always play by rules.

Mike Doran:

Among yourselves, is that the way you talk behind closed doors?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

What do you mean ourselves?

Mike Doran:

You Azerbaijanis. When you're meeting together with senior Azerbaijani officials . . .

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

I got lost, the question.

Mike Doran:

Yeah. You talk about your position and what you . . . The cards you have to play, the influence you have, and so on. Do you talk that way and say that trust is one of the greatest things that we have?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

It goes without saying. We never talk behind the closed doors what is our strengths. It's over here. It is on the back of our mind. It's very natural. You don't need to talk about it. You just do.

We know who we are. As one of our officials, and you're talking about how we talk among ourselves once put, that every Azerbaijani diplomat is actually quasi-minister of energy, but every Azerbaijani diplomat can be quasi-minister of defense too, quasi-minister of foreign affairs too, or quasi-minister of culture or intercultural relations, too, because there's so many ingredients.

We don't think about it. You cannot think about it. If you think, it becomes unnatural, then you cannot play I would say effective role. What we talk behind the doors, where we can play. When we look 360, there is not a single area where we cannot play a role.

Mike Doran:

I'll tell you why I asked the question like that, because I wonder how self-aware you are. When I say you, not you Ambassador Ibrahim, I mean the Azerbaijanis. You guys stand out to me in a certain way. It's like this, you live in a very difficult region. Your neighbors to the north and south are . . . Nobody wakes up saying, "Gosh, I wish I was neighboring. Russia." Especially no one wakes up and says, "Oh, I wish I had Iran as a neighbor."

If you look at the countries that border Iran, very few of them have a quiet border. The Iranians are very good at making trouble, mischief all around across the borders, but your border with Iran is quiet. I've been there a number of times and it's shocking to me how . . . Just how quiet it is. Another fact, another quality that you guys have is that you're very tight-lipped. Nothing leaks out of Baku.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

You mean myself?

Mike Doran:

You don't leak. You don't leak. Nobody. Sometimes it's frustrating because as somebody who's trying to follow what-

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

What do you want me to leak?

Mike Doran:

I want the secrets, man. I want the secrets. I want to know ahead of time what the big secrets. 

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

We have a secret. We are very nice people. Yeah.

Mike Doran:

But it strikes me that when you . . . I know what I'm trying to say, but I can't find the words. I'll tell you another way. I was in Baku, I was in Azerbaijan. I went all over Azerbaijan during the second Karabakh war.

It was fascinating to me that the best information about what was going on on the battlefield you got from two sources, Turkish media and the Russian media, because their . . . The Turkish officials were briefing their own media about what was happening on the battlefield. The Russians were briefing their military bloggers about what was going on on the battlefield.

The Azerbaijani press knew nothing, knew nothing, right? I couldn't get any . . . I was on the ground in Azerbaijan.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

I don't know if they-

Mike Doran:

They knew nothing that they were talking about, right?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

No, that's different, right? Knowing and not saying are different things.

Mike Doran:

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but that's the whole point. You would read in the Turkish media that the Turks would say, "We," the identification of the Turkey—

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

We're one nation with the states.

Mike Doran:

Yeah. Yeah. The identification with Azerbaijan was so strong. They would say, "We took ‘city name’, we took whatever." Then, two days later, President Aliyev would come out and he would list the places that were taken, then all the Azerbaijan . . . Once President Aliyev said it then everyone knew, oh, that is the truth.

There was . . . The information from the Turkish media people took as a hopeful sign, but then when the president said it, they said, "Okay, it's happened."

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Yeah.

Mike Doran:

It's a very striking thing about the way President Aliyev talks. He doesn't . . . When . . . I've been in some of these group meetings with him, and people will ask a question, and he'll say, "Well, there are three reasons why X." He'll say, "Reason one is this, reason two is this, and the third one, I don't want to tell you."

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Yes.

Mike Doran:

Right? It's very, very straightforward.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

It's called statesmanship.

Mike Doran:

But it's very different from the way we do. He doesn't spin, right? If he doesn't want to tell you something, he says, "I won't tell you." Right? It's very straightforward. When you get a commitment, it is a commitment.

I think It's not just from the president. I think it's a national quality. You keep your mouth shut, and if you get a commitment, it's solid.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

It is, of course. It's very national, and of course president is the best reflection of it. I think that through media you all remember his words that my word is my signature. Yes, we don't need to sign something to show that we will deliver. This is very important. That comes way back from our history. That comes also actually from our geography.

Mike Doran:

That's what I was was trying to imply.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Exactly. You mentioned the neighborhood, you call it tough, challenging, whatever. It can be. I grew up in a neighborhood nobody would like to grow up in. That's fine. I think that was my advantage also.

When you grow up in the neighborhood, which is very challenging, you become more immune to even bigger challenges. I don't believe there is any single challenge around Azerbaijan which we cannot tackle.

That's in our DNA. Again, I don't want to sound arrogant, but it's our life story, right? As a nation, as people. I think we're very proud of it and we're ready to work with our neighbors.

You mentioned the problems on the borders between some countries. Our policy has always been of having no issues, no problems. We never interfered into the affairs of our neighbors. Right now, too, wherever we can help, we do. That's why you saw all these calm borders.

Mike Doran:

Interesting. It's very interesting. Back to the original question, are you aware that this is something that differentiates you from others, the fact that you hold your own counsel and then you make commitments, and when you make a commitment, it's a solid commitment?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Frankly speaking, Mike, I never thought about it. Frankly, I don't have time to think about it. I think about some other things, how I can move things forward, but I never did.

Mike Doran:

Okay, this is an opportunity to tell us some secrets. What's on your mind right now?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

What's in my mind right now that my twin girls tonight, they'll come home. They will not see their dad because he'll be busy, and I will miss the chance of spending more time with them. Four years in the United States took so much time from my family, so that's what I'm thinking about.

Mike Doran:

Okay. Let's talk again about the talk August agreement. You were here for the earlier discussion. I put it to Efkan, I think, is it an agreement to agree or is it an agreement?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

I think it's everything. It's breakthrough, it's historic, it's unmatched. I think it's great opportunity for everybody. Not only do I hope that we will use it as much as possible, I am pretty confident that it will move forward, because what is happening on the ground right now is also unmatched.

Again, I think Efkan or Luke spoke about the grain transit, but it's not just grain. Basically, our president had a decision to allow every transit through Azerbaijan for Armenian goods right now.

I think Prime Minister Pashinyan also appreciated that and probably will be some reciprocity on that. Of course we hope that trip will happen, but again, I don't want to use . . . Maybe it was wrong for me. I'm getting old using the word hope. Not hope. It'll happen. That would unlock a lot of opportunities.

We spoke about Georgia and I said, "We're holistic or we have to be holistic." Look, in early nineties then we were sending these messages. I personally also as a diplomat in our engagements, I was talking to Armenian diplomats then, too. We're trying to explain, well, look, this is one region. If we stick together, that would benefit all of us.

For different reasons, I don't want to into that, it didn't happen. It happened only now. Then, Azerbaijan and Georgia, with huge support from the United States of America, from Turkia, and some other partners, managed to have two countries be together, work together, move together to the future.

This huge energy projects where Azerbaijan also try to have as much of Georgia in Azerbaijani projects definitely helped Georgia to become also economically, socially more sustainable and stronger.

Also, Turkish involvement was critical because that allowed not only transportation of fossil fuel, but also allowed to have transit routes. This helped to have Georgia-Azerbaijani bonds real strong.

Now we hope that we can do it together, all three of us. There is, again, a significant progress between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and of course together with Georgia. Just yesterday, Prime Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan weren’t releasing. They had also very strong statements. With that, we'll move forward. Is it agreement? Is it agreement to agree? It's everything, and I think there will be more.

Mike Doran:

You heard me earlier about this movable feast. In a way, I think the Azerbaijanis and the Armenians . . . I'll just say this in my own name so you don't have to sign onto this, but they handed the agreement to the Trump administration in a way.

I feel that middle powers like a rising Azerbaijan are playing an increasing role in defining the international system now in a way that we haven't seen before. I wonder if you agree with that, and if so, how is that shaping thinking in Baku?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

It's always good to be self-confident, it's always bad to be arrogant. As one of my professors put it here, arrogance kills. I don't want to name ourselves middle power, or whatever. There are a lot of experts, much smarter people than me, who might label it this way.

As a career diplomat who did nothing but diplomacy and foreign service in my entire life, I can say that we're doing as much as possible not only for the development of our nation, not only for the peace and stability and development in South Caucasus, but in larger region, but also globally.

Look at different issues in different stages of our last 30-plus years after regaining our independence, right? We were elected to the UN Security Council. Everybody expected, oh, Azerbaijan will come with its own agenda, blah, blah, blah. Everything.

We always was sticking to international law. We were always saying there is a rules-based order, and that gives the biggest currency to you as we're talking about, trust. People start trusting you.

Then, we were leading non-aligned movement. In couple of years when our chairmanship's supposed to be over, we were asked to extend it because, again, we were not bringing anything from our own domestic, internal, or national security agenda. We're sticking to the rules-based order to international law. Same with COP29,I understand that we're not talking too much about climate change in the city today, but . . .

Mike Doran:

And not in the Hudson Institute.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Not the Hudson Institute. That's why it's the last time I'm going to mention that, but everybody appreciated what Azerbaijan did in such a short period of time. Now, actually, we are helping and working together with our Brazilian partners and some others. Again—

Mike Doran:

Sorry. What did Azerbaijan do on COP29? What was the . . .

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Deliverables. What was impossible to achieve previously in terms of funding, in terms of agreeing on . . . Again, you told me at the Hudson you don't talk about climate change . . .

Mike Doran:

No. No, no. But you are talking about. No, Azerbaijani diplomacy.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Basically, I'll put it this way.

Mike Doran:

I'll let you talk about it.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

I'll bring together Azerbaijan diplomacy and with Hudson rules. We made impossible possible. It's clear. We made impossible possible for COP29 and now it's moving forward.

Again, you can label Azerbaijan and some other countries in a way that while they're punching above their weight they're having significant role in international affairs. We are not thinking about it.

What we are thinking about it, how we can contribute. Label us different way, put different names into our module. Doesn't matter. We'll continue this way because, again, it's in our DNA. We suffered for a very long time.

Our neighborhood, as you said, is not the easiest. Our history is very vibrant and we belong to so many geographies that we cannot just sit down and wait when challenges come to us. We try to create opportunities in order to curve and deter these challenges.

Mike Doran:

You belong to different geographies. You're South Caucasian.

Mike Doran:

So you belong to different geographies. You're South Caucasian, you're Central Asian, you are European, you are Middle-Eastern. I think a lot of people don't realize, Senator Daines mentioned it, your nation bleeds into Iran. There's a way that you are Iranian that a lot of people don't recognize. In a sense, you said we have to be. . . I can't remember what you said. Confident, but not arrogant. But there's a problem for. . . if I could put a name on it, a middle power like this in that. . . When I was in college, I had a professor who said, "A mistake by a great power is a footnote in the history books. A mistake by a small power is a national tragedy." So you're drawn into all of these different arenas, you can influence all of them, but yet you have limited power, so you have to prioritize. So what are the concepts? What's the prioritization?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

I fully agree with your professor. I think he put it in a very right way. But it's not about priorities, actually. It's about adapting to the realities. The world is different. We're speaking about power. What is power today? When I was a student several times in my life, I love studying, I don't know if I learned a lot, but in different stages of my academic life, definition of power was different. Madeline Albright put it differently. She was explaining us all these toolboxes, and power, mostly how to do that. Then some others back in Baku put it in a much, I would say, harder way, then in different geographies where I studied, they put it in a very different way. What is power today? Is it your military? Is it your so-called soft power? Is it your decision-making process? Is it your cultural affinity? It's everything and nothing.

So, again, why Azerbaijan can play a role in different geographies, which we mentioned. There's so many ingredients, all of them together might play a role, or maybe nothing is playing a role because it's really impossible to identify what is power. What is important is how you can make things happen. So this is where we see our priorities. We don't look, okay, we have military, or we should send them somewhere, or we have economic power, we should invest somewhere.

We look what can be done. And in that, I think we're very much in tune with President Trump and his administration. Diplomacy is of possible. You do where you can do things. So if we see that we can be the cork taken out for central Asian countries, would definitely work in that direction. That brings cultural things into it, yes. That brings economic things into it, yes. That brings military component, also yes. I think somebody mentioned here about the joint exercises recently, or in Middle East. In terms of priorities, you understand Middle East is a mess right now, and you need to do something. And when you have good relations with both sides, then automatically you jump in and try to help. So this is where we see it. It's impossible to describe, and I think those people who pretend to know what strategy, what power, what diplomacy is all about, they're all dead wrong. I can be dead wrong, too. You should not be complicating things. You just do whatever you can do, and just look around.

Mike Doran:

So let's talk a little bit about your president, because I think that he is one of the sharpest people on the international stage. He doesn't get as much attention as a lot of other people because of. . . In the United States, we've been saying that the South Caucasus doesn't get as much attention as it should, but the things that he's achieved have been amazing. He's made some very big bets that I think outsiders would've seen as very risky. Maybe they were very risky, but they have all paid off, and you can see just how quickly you went from victory in the war. The total victory remained elusive, but there was a victory on the battlefield, which was translated into. . . I'm talking about in 2020, which was translated into some significant diplomatic gains. But then from there he went from strength to strength.

Can you tell us anything about the way that he conceives of these things, or his own diplomatic style? How would you characterize that?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Well, it's a very good question. You quoted your professor, I will quote Churchill, who everybody's quoting. I love when he said that politicians think about next elections, but statesmen think about next generations. And this is exactly what my president is. He's a statesman. He thinks about next generations, not just next generation, not only about Azerbaijan, but next generations. His thinking is about entire South Caucasus. His thinking is about larger region. His thinking is about global peace, which is also about next generations. You ask me to leak something to say some secret, I will do that.

Mike Doran:

Okay, here we go, here we go, finally.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

I'm going to get fired because you asked about my president, my boss who appointed me, who I very proudly represent. I will not say 99.9 percent of all the instructions I got from him, but I'll tell you 0.1. The first one, when I was first appointed as ambassador to NATO, where I served with Vusala, our new counselor, who is back here to be even more effective, I believe-

Mike Doran:

He took you aside and he said, "Don't fuck it up?"

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

No.

Mike Doran:

No?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

That was not the case.

Mike Doran:

Sorry.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

No. Maybe the case was that I fucked up, but he didn't say that. The thing is, the first instruction he gave me was, "You're representing proud nation of Azerbaijan. Always stay strong, never bow to anybody." That was one of the most significant thing which I carry not only in my heart, but in my diplomatic DNA. There was not a single place where I served it wouldn't have guided me. It always did. Everything else was supporting that. So this is my president.

Mike Doran:

That's very, very interesting. It is remarkable, actually. Also, I met a lot of people who were refugees from the first Karabakh war, and I was always struck by the dignity with which they carry themselves. You don't ever see Azerbaijanis begging.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

No.

Mike Doran:

They don't do it.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

No, no. I remember when I joined foreign service in late '90s, we were having first batch of foreign diplomats who were coming to Azerbaijan. I remember one of those, I think it was at the level deputy minister from one of the European countries, and the guy was very interesting. I was very young. I was asked just to go and translate for him. And once in the evening he told me, "Go home. I will walk by myself. I don't need a translator," even though he didn't speak any Azerbaijani. Next morning, when I saw him, he told me, "You should be very proud." I said, "I understand that I should be proud, but what happened?" He said, "Every nation, every capital city in the world, has good places and shabby places." It's true for every capital city. We can go that direction. We can see also in Washington, right? Some places.

He said, "I went to some shabby places in Baku just to sense what's happening," and it struck me, and that one I also don't forget. He said, "I saw some men on the streets who definitely didn't have jobs. I never saw men just sitting on the streets. Some had broken cars, unfixable, but they were trying to fix it. Everybody was trying to do something. Nobody was sitting idle." This is also in our DNA. So when I'm fired, or when I'm recalled, or when I retire, I don't know what to do. I'm always telling my wife, "My dream is a fisherman's house. Finally, to find peace in my life, and spend time with maybe little kids, which I miss with my older ones." She is like, "Yeah, I know you. Next day you will run away and try to do something." It's not just me. Again, it's our DNA. That's why Vusala came here all the way, and from the first minute of landing here together with her husband, they had to go everywhere around this town.

Mike Doran:

I've been to creepy parts of Baku. Ali had to-

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

What do you mean by creep?

Mike Doran:

Ali took me to-

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

He's creepy or-

Mike Doran:

No, no, no. He's not creepy. He's not creepy. These are places frequented by Iranians. They may be gone now, but it's-

Mike Doran:

Okay. We'll open it up to questions now, if there are any. I have many more myself.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

You see, it's good that you've fed the people before.

Mike Doran:

They're just afraid.

Rabbia:

Just a quick question. My name is Rabbia. Ambassador, could you speak-

Mike Doran:

Can you tell us your affiliation? I'm sorry.

Rabbia:

I'm a journalist with another agency.

Could you speak a little more about Turkish role in the peace pledge between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

Mike Doran:

There's a secret.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

It's not a secret. I mean, it's not a secret for people who want to think and analyze. Turkey's role has always been there. Turkey, and not only during this historic moment, but for the last 30-plus years, I would say was probably the most significant positive player in the region, and not only South Caucasus. Some people like it, some people think from historical perspective, some try to put some narrative, sometimes pseudo-narratives. But if you look at realities, well, who was the first country to recognize not only Azerbaijan, but also Armenia? Turkey. Who was sending assistance and offering economic advantages to the countries of the region? Turkey. Would've been possible to have this global energy and transportation projects in the region without Turkey? Impossible. So Turkey always played a positive role. Turkey never threatened anybody in the region. Turkey always extended the hand, and if we go fast-forward what we have right now, definitely, and I think it's also in the DNA of the brotherly Turkish people that they don't run and take credit for that. They just do it.

So that's why maybe some people might think, "Well, why not Turkey?" Yes, Turkey played a significant role. It goes without saying with Azerbaijan. When I was ambassador to Turkey, it's very difficult to call Azerbaijani ambassador to Turkey as ambassador. I probably could open more doors than many Turkish officials. In Turkish regions where I was going, all doors, all hearts were open. Even recently when I was flying back from Baku, I was so Turkey-sick, so I wanted to stay at least a couple of days in Turkey. And again, I went to neighborhoods, and still I saw so many Azerbaijani flags over there, and the same true in Azerbaijan. So role of Turkey vis-a-vis Azerbaijan is obvious, but also, all this diplomacy by President Erdogan, his meetings with Prime Minister Pashinyan, his engagement with other leaders, his engagement with central Asian leaders, and his, frankly speaking, global role also in Washington cannot be ignored or underestimated.

Mike Doran:

My first visit to Azerbaijan was as a guest of the Turks, and I was treated very nicely, and then I met with the American defense, Atache. It was during the wars, during war, during COVID, and I went to every corner of Azerbaijan, except the actual no-kidding war zone. Although I was in a couple of areas where some Armenian shells had fallen. Anyway, I was talking to the American defense, Atache, and he was quizzing me about all these places I had seen, and I would tell him what I thought, and I said, "But this is my first time here." And I would ask him what he thought about these places, and it got uncomfortable at a certain point, and he said, "Well, I've never been there." And then, I said, "Why don't you go?" I thought it was a stupid US COVID regulation. He wouldn't travel because of COVID. He said, "No, I can't get permission to go there."

So he was locked in Baku, but I got to go everywhere because I was a guest of the Turks, and I wasn't used to that where the. . . Usually the American passport, and especially becomes an American military officer, that opens the doors. But in the case of Azerbaijan, it was having the Turkish connection that opened the doors. Yeah.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Yeah. You should always find the way how to open the doors if you're in diplomatic service.

Mike Doran:

Well, let's see.

Yes, sir.

Claus Lars:

Yeah. Thanks-

Mike Doran:

Wait, you've got a. . .

Claus Lars:

Claus Lars, UNC Chapel Hill.

Thanks very much for the interesting conversation.

You mentioned Turkey, you mentioned Russia, Iran, of course, Trump administration. The European Union has hardly been mentioned. How would you see the European influence? Is there no influence at all? Are they so busy to deal with themselves?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

It's blame on him. He never asked about European Union, so that's why …

Mike Doran:

He talked about the Portuguese tarts. Those are really good.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

It was not with me.

Mike Doran:

What?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

It was not with me about Portuguese tart. It was previous session.

Mike Doran:

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Yeah. I love Portugal, too, yeah, but the point is that it's very unfortunate that not many talk about European Union anymore. It means there is probably some soul-searching, also, inside European Union, in a good way. But also, in terms of how outside powers see European Union. We also had some fluctuating relations with European Union. Now, I think everything is back on track. We are having very intense engagements, very strategic engagements with the European Union, both in Brussels level, but also with capitals. We spoke about energy. I'll give you just a couple of facts, because data is always the biggest argument, right?

In terms of energy export, and we're having people here from energy business, Azerbaijan does not have the largest natural gas reserves in the world, but we are number one, number one by far exporter of natural gas in terms of diversity of our customers. We send natural gas to 14 countries, 10 of which are members of European Union. It means something. You can send all your natural gas, which we have a lot, to one nation. That nation is happy, and live in its own world. But at the same time, you might have many European countries which do not have this extra capacity not to freeze in winter, or have their economies running. That's where countries like Azerbaijan step up. We do it bilaterally, but we also do it through Brussels, through our cooperation with the European Union. That's why we have this energy charter. That's why we're working with European Union on that. That's on energy side, but also on connectivity right now.

I believe for trip for the road, I think the role of European Union will be extremely important. Not necessarily this missing, what, 26 miles? 26.2 is marathon, right? That's what Luke was alluding to. But also, because the corridor is very long, this is the shortest part of it. There is part in Azerbaijan, then there is Central Asia, then there is Nakhchivan, then there is Turkey. Further to Europe, role of European Union not only is important, it's indispensable, and it'll happen. So therefore, European Union is there. Of course, there are many things happening. It's very busy probably on the western side right now, but European Union is and will be a significant partner, not only for Azerbaijan, but other neighbors of Azerbaijan as well.

Mike Doran:

I don't want to come across as engaging in excessive flattery and so on. What I was trying to get at before about the Azerbaijani way of thinking about diplomacy and mode of behavior, I think it's very interesting and deserves study. For example, the deal of the century. What year was the deal of the century?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

'94.

Mike Doran:

'94.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

September 20th.

Mike Doran:

So you guys were flat on your faces in the mud after '94? You just had a defeat in war. You had 800,000 or more people displaced, and you cut a deal where you sent your oil to. . . not through Russia, but you gave Russia a piece of it. And I compare that to the way the Kazakhs have behaved, and the Kazakhs sent all their oil through Russia, or almost all of it. They didn't diversify, and they put all their bets on one actor, and then comes to the Ukraine War, and they're in difficulty there. So it's in your DNA to do this kind of diversification, and to put money on a lot of different numbers, not. . .

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

It's not just money, it's not only diversification, it's most importantly your independence, and independence, not only independence in international legal terms, when you have your borders, when you have your government, very importantly, your decision-making. Without independent decision-making, you cannot be really independent. And that's in our DNA. So that's why when we made decisions, we did not make the decisions because we liked or didn't like somebody. We made decisions because we wanted to be truly independent. So that's why it's not the pipeline of somebody. It's also our pipelines, which we built. All the project we had, it's always together in cooperation. Even right now, even during difficult times. You mentioned the times in '90s when we had our face on the mud, and I liked how Luke put it, having the shovel in the dirt. So we got the shovel probably then cooperating with other countries, European, then it was not like a real European Union then, but with European partners, with United States, with Turkey, very significantly, with neighboring Georgia.

Again, not only because we wanted to have good relations, but most importantly, we wanted to be really independent. That's why after the contract we build these pipelines. Again, it was not just to deviate from somewhere. It was about having your ownership. So today we can manage, we can send our energy resources, and actually not only our energy resources right now, also some others to European markets today. But again, one more thing I want to add. Of course, it should be in your DNA, but leadership matters a lot, and I think specifically you asked about '94. I think the role of our national leader, Heydar Aliyev, was indispensable. I think without him it would've probably never happened.

Mike Doran:

It's a remarkable- …

No, no, it's a remarkable decision because it's a moment of greatest national weakness, and he took this action with great foresight.

Our colleague there from the Anadolu agency asked the question about the role of the Turks president Erdogan in the deal. If I could have the transcripts, if I could think of conversations I would want to have the transcripts of, there are a lot of international conversations that takes place. It's pretty easy to imagine what went on privately on the telephone. I would love to hear all the transcripts of the conversations between Erdogan and Pashinyan, because I keep reading in the Turkish press that Pashinyan and Erdogan spoke on the phone for an hour or whatever, but you don't know what they said to each other. There were a number of these conversations throughout the last year.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Yeah. Sorry, Mike I cannot help you with that.

Mike Doran:

I had to try. I had to try because thought you might be able to give me something.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

You should go to different state here to ask for the help.

Mike Doran:

I don't go there. In Glendale, you mean?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

No-

Mike Doran:

No, they don't. Where are you referring to?

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Whatever you want.

Mike Doran:

Oh, you're talking about NSA. The NSA, you're talking about? I didn't understand what you were referring to. We don't do that. We don't listen to anyone.

We have time for one last question. If there's anyone who wants to ask a question. . . Going once, twice, three times.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Sold.

Mike Doran:

Okay.

Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim

Thank you.

Mike Doran:

Please join me in thanking the ambassador.